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Well, I mean, TECHNICALLY New York City isn't quite eliminated from the playoff race.

Yeah, we already stuck a fork in them. Honestly, you should too. But we love math over here, so let's acknowledge the Blues' scantest-of-scant chances for postseason qualification.

SCIENCE FACT: New York City isn't out of the hunt for the Eastern Conference playoff race.

SCIENCE FACT ALSO: The remaining chances flirt with statistical insignificance.

Here's what's ongoing projections have to say about the Bronx Blues' chances:


Get low. Get low, get low, get very, very low. (Image: SportsClubStats/Ken Roberts)

Aha! A healthy 0.8% projected chance for the Boys in Blue to break into the postseason!

"So... you're telling me there's a chance?!?"

Yes, New York City's still-extant chances of making the playoffs are about equal to:

My favorite part of the above chart? Where it lists specific odds for each potential playoff team to win the MLS Cup, it just says "No" for NYCFC. But wait, I thought there was still a chance?!? Well, all that means is that, over the course of the many simulations run by SportsClubStats, not a single one has resulted in a Cup for NYCFC. We can safely believe that the Blues' chances at the Cup, even before being formally eliminated, are "statistically insignificant" (much like Pablo Alvarez and Mehdi Ballouchy).

According to this model, New York City's playoff odds haven't exceeded 40% since mid-April, six weeks into the season. Since that point, they topped out in the mid-30's following July 26th's smashing 5-3 win over Orlando City.

We've all got to stay positive, though, right? In that case, I have just one thing to say:

Lessig 2016.

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Thanks to SportsClubStats for crunching the numbers for us! To learn more about founder Ken Roberts's methodology, CLICK HERE. They lay out scenarios for other sports, too!