At the start of the 2025 Major League Soccer Season, the indentured servants here at Hudson River Blue compiled the preseason predictions made by industry pundits and sorted them into one big, beautiful table. Now that the regular season is over, it's time to see how those picks played out.
The pundit lineup includes Tom Bogert (then with Give Me Sport, now with The Athletic), Matthew Doyle (Armchair Analyst), Joseph Lowery (Backheeled), the staff at MLS.com, Jeff Reuter (The Athletic), Ben Steiner (Sports Illustrated), and Ben Wright (Give Me Sport). Some made astute picks, but most of them fall under the heading of "Nobody can predict MLS!"
To be fair, the picks were made in February, long before any team had played a meaningful game. At the time, it was perfectly reasonable to think that a Philadelphia Union without Jim Curtin were sure to stumble, and that a high-flying LA Galaxy were sure to be contenders. We were so young then.
Closer to home, the pundits picked New York City FC to slide into irrelevancy — just three out of the seven pundits thought the team could make the playoffs. They also believed the New York Red Bulls would improve on their impressive 2024 season — six of the seven tapped them to make the playoffs, with Bogert putting them in 4th Place.
We kept the receipts: You'll find the table with all the predictions below, or you can read the original post here.
Read on to learn more about the MLS punditry's biggest hits and misses in 2025.
2025 MLS Predictions by Pundit
Biggest hits
Most Accurate Pundit: MLS.com
Out of the seven pundits we cataloged back in February, the MLSsoccer staff (to use their term) fared the best, correctly predicting the final position for four of the league's 30 teams: Chicago Fire, New England Revolution, and CF Montréal in the East, Minnesota United and Austin FC in the West. They also came within one place of another two teams, FC Cincinnati and DC United in the East.
At the same time, they picked San Diego FC to finish dead last in West. Whoops.
Special mention goes to Bogert, who correctly predicted the final position for four of the teams, and made another 10 picks that were accurate within one place. Notably, Bogert called the last-place teams in both conferences — he was the only one who successfully made either of those predictions.
1. MLS.com: 5 correct, 2 within one place
2. Tom Bogert, Give Me Sport: 4 correct, 10 within one place
3. Joseph Lowery, Backheeled: 4 correct, 3 within one place
4. Ben Wright, Give Me Sport: 3 correct, 6 within one place
5. Ben Steiner, Sports Illustrated: 3 correct, 5 within one place
6. Matt Doyle, Armchair Analyst: 3 correct, 4 within one place
7. Jeff Reuter, The Athletic: 2 correct, 4 with one place
Most Accurate Pick: Minnesota United
Minnesota United finished the season in 4th Place, which was picked correctly by three of the seven pundits: Bogert, Jeff Rueter, and Ben White. Another three picked them to finish in 3rd Place, and one tapped them for 6th Place. If you average out the predictions made by the pundits, Minnesota's final place on the table was accurate to within 0.71 places.
Chicago Fire are close behind. Four correctly picked them to finish in 9th Place, but their final average inaccuracy was slightly higher at 0.86 places.
1. Minnesota United: 4th Place, 3 correct picks, 0.71 avg inaccuracy
2. Chicago Fire: 9th Place, 4 correct picks, 0.86 avg inaccuracy
3. Cincinnati FC: 2nd Place, 1 correct pick, 1.00 avg inaccuracy
4. DC United: 15th Place, 1 correct pick, 1.29 avg inaccuracy
5. New England: 11th Place, 2 correct picks, 1.43 avg inaccuracy
6. LAFC: 3rd Place, no correct picks, 1.43 avg inaccuracy
Oliver Strand
Biggest misses
Largest Underestimation: San Diego FC
Nobody saw San Diego FC finishing at the top of the Western Conference in their first year of existence. So what if St. Louis City did exactly that exact same thing in 2023, just two seasons ago? Still, the punditry's underestimation was stark, with five of the seven picking San Diego to finish in the bottom three — and MLS.com predicting the team would come in last place. The pundits underestimated them by 11.71 places on average.
The sole pundit who gave San Diego any credit was Joseph Lowery of Backheeled. He was the only one to predict a playoff appearance for the team, picking San Diego to finish in 8th Place, just seven places off.
In general, it was a bad year for the top of the table in both conferences. Nobody had Philadelphia finishing top of the East, and five had them missing the playoffs altogether. On average, the pundits were off by 10.00 places. At the same time, nobody had Vancouver come within one goal of winning the West, with all but one predicting they'd miss the playoffs. The pundits were off by 10.23 places on average.
New York City didn't quite make the list below, but they get an honorable mention: NYCFC finished in 5th Place, with the pundits underestimating them by 4.00 places on average.
1. San Diego: 1st Place, 11.71 avg inaccuracy
2. Philadelphia Union: 1st Place, 10.00 avg inaccuracy
3. Vancouver Whitecaps: 2nd Place, 10.00 avg inaccuracy
4. FC Dallas: 7th Place, 4.86 avg inaccuracy
5. Nashville SC: 6th Place, 4.43 avg inaccuracy
Largest Overestimation: LA Galaxy
Every pundit predicted a Top 4 finish for LA Galaxy, winners of the 2024 MLS Cup. While title holders tend to stumble the year after lifting the trophy, nobody could imagine that a Galaxy that lost Riqui Puig to injury and Dejan Joveljić to Sporting Kansas City could be so directionless, so utterly awful, that they would end the season with 18 losses. The pundits overestimated the Galaxy 11.71 places on average.
Close behind are Atlanta United, who made a surprising run in the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs. At the start of this year, they looked to be much-improved after a spendy offseason that saw them bring back Miguel Almirón, add Emmanuel Latte Lath for a club-record transfer fee, and name Ronny Deila head coach. The cognoscenti were dazzled by the business done by the club's front office, with four of the seven picking a Top 4 finish for a team that ended the season in 14th Place. The pundits were off by 10.14 places on average.
1. LA Galaxy: 14th Place, 11.71 avg inaccuracy
2. Atlanta United: 14th Place, 10.14 avg inaccuracy
3. St. Louis City: 13th Place, 4.71 avg inaccuracy
4. Colorado Rapids: 11th Place, 4.14 avg inaccuracy
5. Seattle Sounders: 5th Place 3.57 avg inaccuracy
Andrew Leigh
Biggest misses by pundit
The biggest whiffs by the punditry were almost all the same: Atlanta and Philadelphia in the East, LA Galaxy and San Diego in the West. (Shoutout to Reuter, who broke ranks by stumbling the most with Vancouver, the second-place team which he picked to finish last in the West.) The only question was the magnitude of the miss.
The top honor goes to MLS.com, which picked first-place San Diego to finish in last.
1. Ben Steiner, Sports Illustrated: Atlanta, 12 places
2. Matthew Doyle, Armchair Analyst: Philadelphia, 12 places
3. MLS.com: Atlanta, 12 places
4. Ben Wright, Give Me Sport: Philadelphia, 11 places
5. Jeff Reuter, The Athletic: Atlanta, 11 places
6. Joseph Lowrey, Backheeled: Atlanta, 10 places
7. Tom Bogert, Give Me Sport: Philadelphia, 8 places
1. MLS.com: San Diego, 14 places
2. Jeff Reuter, The Athletic: Vancouver, 13 places
3. Ben Wright, Give Me Sport: San Diego, 13 places
4. Sports Illustrated: LA Galaxy, 13 places; San Diego, 13 places
5. Joseph Lowrey, Backheeled: LA Galaxy, 12 places
6. Matthew Doyle, Armchair Analyst: San Diego, 12 places
7. Tom Bogert, Give Me Sport: LA Galaxy, 11 places; San Diego, 11 places
Oliver Strand
