Finishing School: When will Mounsef Bakrar score?

New York City FC’s Mounsef Bakrar is one of the best strikers in Major League Soccer.

That is, if you go by every metric except for goals scored. Bakrar’s non-penalty xG of .42 per 90 minutes puts him among the league elite per Opta — his xG puts him just ahead of Cucho Hernandez of Columbus Crew (.40) and Dániel Gazdag of Philadelphia Union (.40). His Attack Contribution, also from Opta, is in the 92%, which puts him above Dejean Joveljic of LA Galaxy and just behind Teemu Pukki of Minnesota United.

The 23-year-old has 5.89 touches per 90 minutes in the attacking penalty area according to FBRef, which puts him in the 89%. And his 1.14 carries into the penalty area per 90 minutes, also per FBRef, puts him in the 90%.

But Bakrar has zero goals in seven starts this season. And that puts him at the very bottom for strikers in Major League Soccer.

MLS Strikers Through Matchday 10

Not only does he trail goal machines such as Christian Benteke (who Bakrar will face tomorrow when DC United travel to Citi Field), or Luis Suárez (who scored against New York City last month), both of whom log one goal per 90 minutes. He’s behind early-season disappointments such as Hugo Cuypers of Chicago Fire, who has two goals in over 600 minutes played, and New England Revolution’s Giacomo Vrioni, who scored just once this season.

Bakrar’s lack of production puts New York City in the position of being the only team in the league whose striker hasn’t scored.

Even the Houston Dynamo, who continue to tinker with who plays at the front, found a goal in former New York City backup striker Gabe Segal when he scored against Sporting Kansas City to salvage a draw at home. Houston have scored just nine times in seven games, which ties them for 20th place overall in the league for goals, but they have 13 points, which puts them in third place in the Western Conference. Every result counts.

Ready, aim

You can’t fault Bakrar for lack of trying. His workrate is strong: He makes the runs, draws defenders out of position, creates space. He’s not a big target man, or somebody who can muscle a central defender off the ball, but his movement is intelligent, and he finds a way to get open at key moments.

Still, he has a hard time putting his shots on target. Bakrar had zero shots on goal against New England last week, or against Atlanta United the week before that, or against Inter Miami CF on March 30. The last time Bakrar placed a shot on target was back on March 16, more than one month ago, when New York City defeated Toronto FC at Yankee Stadium.

Even if he can’t find the target, Bakrar has made some thrilling attempts. There was a low, hard shot across the goal against Atlanta that just went wide. Then there was bicycle kick that same game that was perfect in every way except for where the ball went.

It’s games – and shots – like these that get to the paradox of Bakrar. He almost certainly improved this New York City squad after he joined the team last year, giving the attack a focus and balancing out an uneven cast of forwards that other teams could easily isolate and dominate. But he hasn’t provided the goal production that should accompany his level of play.

Nick Cushing has faith

Bakrar’s inability might be puzzling to an analyst, but it’s a spruce of frustration to New York City fans. After the team’s 2-0 win over New England last Saturday, Hudson River Blue readers gave him a player rating of just 4.3. It wasn’t just the lowest number for the squad, it was more than a full point less than the second-worst.

But our readers don’t decide the Starting XI. That’s the job of head coach Nick Cushing, and in the pregame press conference held yesterday at the team’s training facility in Rockland County, he expressed his full support for Bakrar.

Nick Cushing Press Conference | April 18, 2024

“His forward running is excellent, that his pressing numbers are excellent. These are where these chances are coming from,” Cushing said. “You know, I have full confidence in Mounsef. If he keeps getting chances, he’s going to take them.”

Cushing always speaks well of his players – he’s all carrot, no stick, at least when it comes to talking about his squad at press conferences – but this statement stands out as being remarkably optimistic. The head coach believes in his striker.

Does the striker believe in himself? A dry spell like this one is enough to shake anybody’s confidence, but to judge by his body language and how he plays the game, Bakrar seems unfazed. He looks committed to making the runs, and to creating chances that will let him find a way to get the ball into the back of the net.

If that happens tomorrow, then Bakrar could be on his way from being the best striker in the league who has yet to score, to simply being one of the best strikers in the league.