Eastern Conference Final: New York City vs Inter Miami at Chase Stadium

It’s matchday – it’s the 2025 Eastern Conference Final – and New York City FC are in South Florida to face Inter Miami CF in the biggest Gender Reveal Derby to date.

NYCFC aren’t supposed to be here. According to the oddsmakers, the fifth-seeded team in the Eastern Conference should have fallen to top-seeded Philadelphia Union after their starting attack was hollowed out with the loss of Alonso Martínez and Andrés Perea to season-ending injuries.

But New York City outplayed the Supporters’ Shield winners last Sunday in what can be considered Major League Soccer’s biggest upset this year, and now a team that many pundits picked to miss the playoffs before the start of the season are Eastern Conference Finalists.

On the pink side of the field, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami look imperious under Head Coach Javier Mascherano. The Herons beat FC Cincinnati 4-0 on the road just Sunday, smothering a team that were thought to be title contenders. Messi’s form in the MLS Cup Playoffs has been magisterial, with the 38-year-old GOAT scoring six goals and adding five assists in four games — he alone accounts for 11 of Miami’s 12 postseason goals this year.

Will New York City find a way to piece together another upset win on the road? After all, NYCFC are the best away team in the league: Not only do they have three wins in three games played on the road in these playoffs, they have just one loss in their last 10 away games: New York City’s road record is 8W-1D-1L going back to July.

Or will Miami take the next step in a march to a title that has so far eluded this record-setting payroll? Messi alone makes more than the entire NYCFC roster, and with teammates Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets set to retire at the end of this season, the pressure is on for a squad of aging All-Stars and emerging South American talent to deliver a trophy that the soccerati expected them to lift last year.

This is a game full of electrifying matchups.

• Battle of No 10s: Both teams feature 38-year-old No 10s from Argentina in Messi and Maxi Moralez. Messi’s white-hot form is proving impossible for MLS clubs to contain, while Maxi’s goal against Philadelphia proved to be the game-winner — and his unmatched ability to draw fouls helped close out the win.

• Offense vs Defense: Miami’s 12 goals in four playoff games are unmatched. Look further back, and you’ll see the depth of this run of form: Miami scored 16 goals in the four games going into the postseason (although one of those was a 5-3 home loss to Chicago Fire), giving them 28 goals in eight games. That attack will now face a New York City defense that allowed just one goal in four playoff games, with goalkeeper Matt Freese making a combined 12 saves to log a league-best three clean sheets.

• Men vs Boys: The average age of Miami’s midfield in the win over Cincinnati was 32, with Baltasar Rodriguez (22) offsetting the decades piled up by Busquets (37), De Paul (31), and Messi (38). Compare that with New York City’s average age of 27, with Maxi (38) adding experience to a lineup featuring Kevin O’Toole (26), Jonny Shore (18), and Hannes Wolf (26).

• Tactical duel between two first-year MLS head coaches: While the fairly inexperienced Mascherano looks to have taken control of this ego-filled team and has them playing their best soccer this year, the more seasoned Jansen has transformed a mid-budget squad full of young players into a cohesive unit that plays with the “bulletproof mindset” he set out to instill at the start of the year.

Referee Scouting Report

Jon Freemon will oversee an NYCFC game for the fifth time this year, with every one of those played on the road. He refereed New York City’s 1-0 win over Charlotte in Round One, Game 1, when he showed five yellow cards to NYCFC players — and none to the hosts. Freemon also oversaw New York City’s 1-0 away loss to Philadelphia on October 4, their 4-3 away win over FC Dallas on July 25, and the 1-1 away draw with Nashville on May 31. Overall, New York City have a record of 2W-1D-1L with Freemon on the field.

Notably, Freemon isn’t afraid to discipline NYCFC players. Justin Haak, Aiden O’Neill, and Kevin O’Toole all earned seven yellow cards in the regular season and the playoffs, and those three players each received two yellow cards from Freemon.

New York City vs Inter Miami H2H

The head-to-head between these two clubs heavily favors New York City, but that’s due to the team’s early dominance, when NYCFC beat Miami in their first five meetings. The tide has shifted since then: NYCFC have four draws and one loss in the last five games played.

New York City’s most recent win over Miami came in 2023, when Nick Cushing’s NYCFC beat Phil Neville’s Miami 1-0 courtesy of an own goal from defender Christopher McVey, who is now a starter at San Diego FC.

Strangely, many soccer sites include NYCFC’s 2-1 win in the Noche d’Or, the friendly that took place after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Why count that exhibition game in competitive stats? It’s unclear, but for those who do, then NYCFC can add another game to the win column after Talles Magno and Julián Fernández scored in South Florida.

New York City vs Miami Postseason H2H

These two teams have met in the playoffs just once, when reigning MLS Cup champions New York City shut out Miami 3-0 at Citi Field in the first round of the 2022 playoffs. That night, Gabriel Pereira and Maxi scored within six minutes of each other to secure the win, then Héber added a goal in stoppage time.

New York City Postseason Record

New York City are undefeated in the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs, with three wins and one draw. That lifts NYCFC’s historic postseason total to 10 wins, and gives the team an even more impressive playoff record of 8W-4D-3L in the last five years. If you count penalty shootouts as wins and losses, that record becomes 11W-4L.

New York City FC are better at the playoffs than you think

NYCFC’s postseason record since the return from COVID five years ago is reason to give thanks: 15 games, 11 wins (8 of those on the road), 6 clean sheets, and 3 Conference Finals put the team at the top of the league.

Hudson River BlueOliver Strand

New York City Scouting Report

• Player Availability: Midfielder Andrés Perea (broken leg), forward Alonso Martínez (knee), forward Malachi Jones (leg), and midfielder Keaton Parks (blood flow issues) are Out.
• Aiden O’Neill is available after serving a one-game suspension for yellow card accumulation. Expect him to be back in the Starting XI after enjoying what was maybe the longest rest the midfielder had in the past 15 months.
• In Philly, Matt Freese set the New York City FC club record for clean sheets in the MLS Cup Playoffs, with Freese now up to four shutouts in eight career NYCFC playoff starts. That beats Sean Johnson’s three clean sheets earned in 14 career playoff games played for New York City. If Freese is to extend his lead at the top, he’ll need to snap a 12-match streak of not being shut out for Miami, their last goalless game back on September 13 at Charlotte FC on their Matchday 26.
• Speaking of playoff records, Maxi Moralez holds a whole bunch of them for New York City. He heads to South Florida with goal contributions in back-to-back games, and if he extends that streak, it might be great news for New York City, as their record in 2025 in matches in which Maxi records either a goal or an assist stands out: 6W-2D-1L, with a +10 goal differential and with one of the draws being the season-opening 2-2 tie at Miami when Moralez assisted Mitja Ilenič on the team’s first goal of the season.
• How will Jansen line up this team? That’s NYCFC’s million-dollar question. Nobody expected him to partner O’Toole in the midfield with Shore against Philadelphia, but that unorthodox Starting XI looked sharp. Will O’Toole get another look in midfield alongside O’Neill in a partnership of the O’s? Or will Jansen drop O’Toole into a back-five? Maybe we will see Julián Fernández in the XI?

Pascal Jansen on Inter Miami Matchup: NYCFC earned the right to be in this final

Will New York City FC’s “bulletproof mindset” carry the team through a tough away matchup against Lionel Messi and Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference Final of the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs?

Hudson River BlueMatthew Mangam

Miami Scouting Report

• Player Availability: Midfielder David Ruíz (hamstring) and defender Ryan Sailor (knee) are Out. Defender Noah Allen isn’t listed on the injury report, but he’s questionable after leaving Sunday’s win over Cincinnati in the 71st minute with an injury.
• Will Mascherano once again keep Luis Suárez out of the Starting XI? That’s Miami’s million-dollar question. The 38-year-old striker was once considered unbenchable, but the team looked better when a suspension forced him to sit, and Mascherano played 19-year-old winger Mateo Silvetti in his place. Silvetti kept the starting role in Sunday’s win, and now has one goal and two assists in those two games.
• Looking to learn more about Miami? Matthew Mangam spoke to Daniel Granada of The Battered Herons Podcast to discuss a Miami that look unstable for Oppo Research: 5 Things about Inter Miami.

Oppo Research: 5 Things about Inter Miami

Inter Miami are feeling confident heading into the Eastern Conference Finals after scoring 12 goals in four playoff games. Will Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, and newcomer Mateo Silvetti deliver on the promise of this high-flying team?

Hudson River BlueMatthew Mangam