Expansion Draft Roundtable: Who should be on NYCFC’s 12-player protected list?

The Hudson River Blue Roundtable is back — we missed you, too. Today, a fully-fit squad consisting of John Baney Andrew Leigh, Matthew Mangam, Noah Kassell-Yung, Mark Radigan, Oliver Strand, and Takashi Williams look at the 2024 MLS Expansion Draft, and consider which 12 players New York City FC should put on their protected list to keep away from the growing roster of San Diego FC — and which 10 players they should leave exposed.

New York City will officially announce their protected list tomorrow, Tuesday, December 10; the 2024 Expansion Draft will take place on Wednesday, December 11.

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UPDATE: Major League Soccer released the club’s unprotected lists on Tuesday, December 10, at noon ET.

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Hudson River Blue | Protected List (by Contributor)

	John Baney	Andrew Leigh	Matthew Mangam	Noah Kassell-Yung	Mark Radigan	Oliver Strand	Takashi Williams
1.	Julián Fernández	Julián Fernández	Julián Fernández	Julián Fernández	Julián Fernández	Julián Fernández	Mounsef Bakrar
2.	Matt Freese	Matt Freese	Matt Freese	Matt Freese	Matt Freese	Matt Freese	Julián Fernández
3.	Mitja Ilenič	Mitja Ilenič	Mitja Ilenič	Mitja Ilenič	Mitja Ilenič	Mitja Ilenič	Matt Freese
4.	Malachi Jones	Malachi Jones	Malachi Jones	Malachi Jones	Malachi Jones	Malachi Jones	Mitjia Ilenič
5.	Alonso Martínez	Alonso Martínez	Alonso Martínez	Alonso Martínez	Alonso Martínez	Alonso Martínez	Malachi Jones
6.	Kevin O’Toole	Jovan Mijatović	Jovan Mijatović	Jovan Mijatović	Jovan Mijatović	Jovan Mijatović	Alonso Martínez
7.	Augustín Ojeda	Agustín Ojeda	Kevin O’Toole	Agustín Ojeda	Kevin O’Toole	Agustín Ojeda	Keaton Parks
8.	Keaton Parks	Kevin O’Toole	Keaton Parks	Keaton Parks	Agustín Ojeda	Kevin O’Toole	Kevin O’Toole
9.	Andrés Perea	Keaton Parks	Andrés Perea	Andrés Perea	Keaton Parks	Keaton Parks	Andrés Perea
10.	Santiago Rodríguez	Birk Risa	Birk Risa	Santiago Rodriguez	Birk Risa	Andrés Perea	Santiago Rodríguez
11.	Thiago Martins	Santiago Rodríguez	Santiago Rodríguez	Thiago Martins	Santiago Rodríguez	Santiago Rodríguez	Thiago Martins
12.	Hannes Wolf	Hannes Wolf	Thiago Martins	Hannes Wolf	Thiago Martins	Thiago Martins	Hannes Wolf

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Consensus picks for who is on protected list

Oliver Strand: First of all, eight players are automatically protected because they are Homegrowns under the age of 26. They are Andrew Baiera, Maximo Carrizo, Tayvon Gray, Justin Haak, Christian McFarlane, Alex Rando, James Sands, and Jonathan Shore. They’re safe.

Now, let’s discuss the consensus we reached regarding who the club should protect. All seven of us agree that seven players should be on that list. They are (in alphabetical order) Julián Fernández, Matt Freese, Mitja Ilenič, Malachi Jones, Alonso Martínez, Keaton Parks, and Santiago Rodríguez. 

Why are these players a lock?

Andrew Leigh: All those guys are young-to-prime-aged, and are either some of the team’s most important contributors or some of the most promising prospects on the roster. Given that the rules of the Expansion Draft are such that NYCFC doesn’t have to protect any of its Homegrown signings (Homegrowns under the age of 25 aren’t eligible for selection by San Diego), these feel like the most obvious players to protect.

John Baney: Most of these consensus picks are just too important for NYCFC to lose. Guys like Freese, Santi, Alonso, and Keaton were the backbone of the squad this season. Under no circumstances can you let them walk for $50k in GAM and an unceremonious goodbye.

The last three names, Julián, Mitja, and Malachi are all ones for the future at the ages of 20, 19, and 21 respectively. Even if they had varying levels of contribution this season, the consensus is that they have a high upside. You could leave them unprotected and hope they don’t get snapped up by San Diego, but why take the risk? These are kids that NYCFC will either be leaning on for years to come or will be looking to flip for big profits. I’d be surprised if any of them are left unprotected.

Matthew Mangam: It’s obvious — these players were impressive this season. Other than Julián, who barely played towards the tail end of the season, the rest of the players were very important to NYCFC’s success. Malachi Jones was outstanding too, it’s unfortunate that he suffered such a harsh injury so early into his first career season.

Mark Radigan: The players we all agreed to protect were either mainstays in the NYCFC Starting XI or had immense potential either on the pitch or in the transfer market. As for Julián Fernández, the jury is still out on how big of an impact the Argentine can have on the Boys in Blue, especially considering the difficulty he had getting into the Starting XI under Nick Cushing. We’ll have to wait and see who’s brought in to lead the team next season, and if Fernández can make a good first impression.

Consensus picks for who is not on the protected list

OS: More consensus: We also agree that eight players should not be protected by the club. Three are away on loan, namely Nicolás Acevedo, Talles Magno, and Thiago. One, Luis Barraza, is the subject of a trade rumor that he’s on his way to DC United. One, Rio Hope Gund, just had his option declined. One, goalkeeper Tomás Romero, didn’t see any First Team minutes. But Strahinja Tanasijević made some key starts over the course of the season, and looked pretty good at times. And Maxi Moralez was essential to the success the club had in 2024, despite his age.

First, can NYCFC afford to leave Talles Magno exposed? If he’s picked, and if he comes to terms with San Diego, New York City will take an $8 million hit in a fee they never recouped.

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Hudson River Blue | Exposed List (by Contributor)

	John Baney	Andrew Leigh	Noah Kassell-Yung	Matthew Mangam	Mark Radigan	Oliver Strand	Takashi Williams
1.	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo	Nicolás Acevedo
2.	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza	Luis Barraza
3.	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade	Thiago Andrade
4.	Mounsef Bakrar	Mounsef Bakrar	Mounsef Bakrar	Mounsef Bakrar	Mounsef Bakrar	Mounsef Bakrar	Rio Hope Gund
5.	Rio Hope Gund	Rio Hope Gund	Rio Hope Gund	Rio Hope Gund	Rio Hope Gund	Rio Hope Gund	Jovan Mijatovic
6.	Jovan Mijatovic	Maxi Moralez	Maxi Moralez	Maxi Moralez	Maxi Moralez	Maxi Moralez	Maxi Moralez
7.	Maxi Moralez	Andrés Perea	Kevin O’Toole	Agustín Ojeda	Andrés Perea	Birk Risa	Agustín Ojeda
8.	Birk Risa	Tomás Romero	Birk Risa	Tomás Romero	Tomás Romero	Tomás Romero	Birk Risa
9.	Tomás Romero	Strahinja Tanasijević	Tomás Romero	Strahinja Tanasijević	Strahinja Tanasijević	Strahinja Tanasijević	Tomás Romero
10.	Strahinja Tanasijević	Talles Magno	Strahinja Tanasijević	Talles Magno	Talles Magno	Talles Magno	Strahinja Tanasijević
11.	Talles Magno	Thiago Martins	Talles Magno	Hannes Wolf	Hannes Wolf	Hannes Wolf	Talles Magno

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Noah Kassell-Yung: The Talles Magno questions are good ones, and definitely a story to watch out for this offseason. We’ll learn how influential Nick Cushing was regarding Talles Magno’s move back to Brazil and whether the NYCFC front office views him as part of the club’s project or not. On paper, he appears too valuable to leave unprotected. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s left unprotected, which would be a clear signal that the club is ready to move on. If he’s protected, it could either mean the club is ready to cash out or is willing to give him another chance with a new coach.

MM: Talles Magno may be exposed to San Diego, but I have a feeling he won’t be picked by the club. I think Magno will eventually sign on a permanent deal with Corinthians and that will be all we hear of him. 

MR: Talles Magno’s contract is simply too big to be considered by San Diego. The Brazilian would be hard-pressed to take a pay cut as well. I expect Talles to eventually sign permanently away from NYCFC, whether it be at Corinthians or another South American club, bringing a disappointing end to what could’ve been an iconic career in the Bronx. 

AL: Given that San Diego can only make five selections total in the Expansion Draft, would they risk using one on a player who is no longer playing in MLS and who the expansion club might fail to sign? The financial gamble of leaving him unprotected is real, and the risk of losing Talles for essentially nothing might be enough to actually get him included on NYCFC’s protected list. That said, it’s not my money, so I’d leave him exposed and roll the dice if it means ensuring one more player who is actually in the plans for NYCFC’s 2025 MLS season can be kept safe from San Diego.

Leave Maxi Moraelz and Strahinja Tanasijević exposed?

OS: Do we all agree not to protect Maxi Moralez because he’s one of the oldest outfield players in MLS, he’s out of contract, and he might decide simply to retire than play in Snapdragon Stadium?

AL: Moralez seems like someone who will either play another season for NYCFC or retire. Agreed that leaving him unprotected is more about his age and salary requirements, it would be a move made on the guess that San Diego wouldn’t use a selection on an expensive older player who may only have limited minutes left in the tank for 2025.

OS: What about Tanasijević and the reported $400,000 fee NYCFC paid to sign him? Isn’t he a good third- or fourth-choice center-back?

MM: Strahinja Tanasijević is not a terrible backup center-back, but he’s not good enough to be a starter. I’d rather NYCFC start Justin Haak over Tanasijević for the most part, but he’s still a serviceable backup when needed. 

Takashi Williams: Yeah I agree. Regardless of the sour taste I still have from conceding two to the Red Bulls a couple of weeks back, we have established ourselves as having one of the stronger defensive units in the league in my eyes. Will be hard for him to take a spot from Haak, but it’s not a bad bench option for sure.  

MR: Tanasijević has shown glimpses of potential, but at other times has resembled more of a walking yellow card than anything else. He’s a good depth piece, but Matthew’s right: Haak is the much more desirable option to slot in the back line during an injury crisis or rotation game.

AL: Tanasijević was fine as a backup and spot starter but leaving him unprotected doesn’t seem too risky. He doesn’t seem like a prime candidate for selection by San Diego, who are already investing significant money in a center-back after signing longtime Middlesbrough FC player Paddy McNair. Will they want to spend $400,000 in salary on a veteran of the Serbian SuperLiga?

Protect or expose Jovan Mijatović?

OS: We had a near-consensus on protecting Jovan Mijatović and Kevin O’Toole. John, why didn’t you put Jovan on your magic list?

JB: Jovan was one of the toughest ones for me to decide on. Ultimately, the system of only being able to protect 12 players means you have to take on some risk somewhere. Personally, I’d be gambling on San Diego not going in for Jovan, even if I’d be devastated to lose him.

He’s an odd one because he falls under that “high upside” category that led to the consensus picks of Julian, Mitja, and Malachi. But for me, we’ve just seen so much less of that potential in an NYCFC shirt when it comes to Jovan. We saw him bag a handful of goals for Red Star at a really young age, we saw the links to European giants (including the CFG mothership in Manchester City), and we saw the hefty price tag it took to land him. But on the field in his first season? I’m not sure we saw anything to suggest that he deserves to hold one to one of those coveted 12 protection slots.

That said, I’m certainly not giving up on a highly talented 18-year-old who’s still getting acclimated to a new country, language, and life in general. I’m just betting on the idea that San Diego wouldn’t want to take on that risk themselves, especially for a side that’ll likely be looking for pieces that allow them to compete right away. But, as an $8.6 million signing, it’s admittedly a big risk.

OS: Noah, no O’Toole? There’s no depth at left-back, especially with Christian McFarlane’s planned move to Manchester City this winter.

NKY: Left back was a weak spot this year with O’Toole cementing the starting spot mostly by default due to McFarlane’s poor performances and lack of other depth at the position. I think the front office will look to strengthen that position no matter what, so protecting with depth in mind isn’t especially important during a transfer window. While O’Toole offers a lot going forward as a wingback, defensively he leaves a lot to ask for and is on the weaker end of left-backs league-wide. 

Hard choices regarding Mounsef Bakrar, Agustín Ojeda, Andrés Perea, Hannes Wolf,

OS: Takashi, you’re the only one here who would protect Mounsef Bakrar. I think we all like aspects of his play, but the striker had one year and then some to figure out how to score goals and he just didn’t get the job done. Why protect him?

TW: Great question. I think first we all agree that he has certain qualities that he’s shown when on the pitch that could make him a great second option up top as a forward. Especially with the recent resurgence of Alonso Martinez, I am not mad at having other options in that position along with him only being 23 and having scored coming off the bench in multiple matches already.

So to be real, I think he brings more than he takes away by staying, but I completely get the arguments for why he should not be protected. Is only 23, great work ethic, so willing to bet on him for one more season at least. 

OS: Three of you are protecting Hannes Wolf — he has a Designated Player-level salary of $1.4 million, which might put off San Diego. Plus, he was inconsistent throughout the year, and faded as the season wore on. Andrew, why does he deserve one of the 12 spots?

AL: My feeling is they’re still working on turning Wolf back into a desirable asset the team can sell off to a European club and they won’t want to risk losing him.

Wolf has spoken openly of his desire to move back to Europe, but did he really impress enough in 2024 to earn that right away? NYCFC has the Austrian attacker under contract through 2027 after acquiring him via free transfer, and my thought is they’re expecting him to have an even better season in 2025 before he departs in the summer or following the 2025 season for a transfer fee, maximizing NYCFC’s return on the big salary investment they made in Wolf.

NKY: The case for not protecting Wolf is fairly clear and one that a good majority of the NYCFC fanbase would agree with. While his profile is appealing and was one of excitement when he was brought in, his level on the field was sub-par. His hefty contract is definitely a hurdle for San Diego, however, if he was picked up I doubt many in the NYCFC world would be too devastated. 

OS: Matthew, you’re not feeling Ojeda?

MM: I like Agustín Ojeda, but when looking at the 12-player list, I had to exclude someone. I think players like Kevin O’Toole and Andrés Perea – despite being toss-ups – have to be protected just because of their importance to the team.

Yes, Ojeda is a good player, but I feel NYCFC has decent winger depth with Malachi Jones, Hannes Wolf, and Julián Fernández. Yes, the winger depth could take a hit if some of those players leave this winter, but I think the club should try to keep him overall. It was a toss-up between keeping Ojeda or Perea, and I chose the latter. 

AL: I’m okay leaving Perea unprotected. James Sands and Keaton Parks are the players the midfield is built around, and I’m operating under the assumption that Sands is sticking around for 2025, even if his 2024 season was quietly excellent and enough to kick up interest from a European club in need of a defensive midfielder.

If I’m the next NYCFC coach, I’m focused on those two Americans in the midfield. Perea is great depth but he’s an odd fit in that he doesn’t work as a starter alongside Parks and Sands, he’s not a No 10, and he’s also not enough of an attacking threat to compete with any of the talented wide players, even though Nick Cushing did play him as a wide midfielder a few times in 2024.

Ojeda showed flashes of his upside in 2024 before getting mostly benched late in the season by a coaching-for-his-job Cushing. NYCFC just dropped a hefty transfer fee to sign him, and he’s still very young – I wouldn’t want to lose Ojeda, I view him as a decent breakout candidate for 2025 and would expect bigger things under a new non-Cushing coach.

Should there even be an Expansion Draft?

OS: Let’s step back and consider the validity of the expansion draft. Expansion drafts happen in the US, where professional sports leagues are closed, but not in the rest of the world, where there’s promotion and relegation. John, Mark, and Andrew let their feelings be known in the most recent Hudson River Blue Podcast – Mark called it “completely unnecessary.”

What do we think? Is expansion draft simply a part of the landscape on these shores? Or is it a relic from when MLS was a more fragile league, and should go the way of the 35-yard penalty shootout?

MM: Not a fan of drafts overall. Most draft picks end up not working out anyway. It’s just part of the American system and doesn’t work well in soccer. I feel like these expansion drafts aren’t going anywhere, though, as MLS will continue to do this for each new club it adds.

MR: As I said on the latest episode of the Hudson River Blue Podcast – give it a listen if you haven’t – the Expansion Draft is completely unnecessary. It’s expensive to create an MLS expansion franchise, with San Diego costing a reported $500 million. The price, coupled with the years-long process of building up the club’s foundation, provides a great enough window for wealthy owners to take advantage of the global transfer market, rather than just recycle less-than-critical MLS players. 

TW: I mean, I completely agree with you. Especially when we look at the women’s soccer counterpart here in the States, NWSL, they recently got rid of drafts in general. Drafts in professional sports are a very American system, and, as you said, limit the amount of global talent that could come in through the transfer market. If the MLS wants to establish itself as a legitimate league and not a glorified Sunday league for yesterday’s European starlights, I believe getting rid of the draft is a step towards that for sure. 

AL: It feels like a relic of the MLS 1.0 Era back when the pool of players interested in even coming to play in MLS was much more limited. Roster building for MLS teams has changed drastically but the league has been too slow to phase out the quirky stuff like Discovery Rights and Expansion Drafts. As others have said, the lack of choice the expansion draft – and all drafts, really – gives to individual players regarding their futures and careers feels extremely antiquated here in 2024. Ditch the drafts and just let the teams spend more freely on the players they want to sign, it doesn’t seem that hard to solve. 

NKY: When I think “Expansion Draft,” my mind immediately goes to the NBA, where there’s a fairly small talent pool that the teams pick from. Soccer is quite the opposite, and especially at MLS’s level, there’s no lack of talent available in the world. I also don’t think the draft benefits anyone. The pool of players is automatically going to be lower-end MLS talent and putting on my GM hat of a new expansion team, I would want to build the whole team and not be burdened with half a squad of what are essentially MLS rejects. 

Which NYCFC player do you pick if you’re San Diego FC?

OS: Role-playing time. Pretend you’re Tyler Heaps, general manager and sporting director of San Diego. Who do you pick and why? Is it a player to add to your roster? Or somebody to trade? 

MR: If I’m Tyler Heaps, I’m taking Mounsef Bakrar. The Algerian has shown flashes of MLS quality, but limited minutes off the back of poor cameos have limited his development somewhat. That said, I do believe there is a legitimate MLS quality talent in Mounsef, he just needs more time to prove it. 

TW: Exactly! The guy is only 23 years old and started producing goals when not facing the brunt of being the target guy up top in only his first season over in the Americas — not to bail him out with excuses of course. But if we look at the four goals that he scored this season, let’s just say these were not simple tap-ins. He’s got something for sure.

MM: Looking at the players I chose not to protect, I would take either Mounsef Bakrar or Agustín Ojeda. Bakrar has the striker fundamentals down, except for the finishing. If that can be polished off, he’d be a great striker. As for Ojeda, he’s a young, fast winger who brings a lot to the table. It’s a shame we haven’t seen more of him this season. In the few appearances he’s made, he’s scored three goals and looked lively.

NKY: Role-playing as Tyler Heaps I’m taking Birk Risa, a 26-year-old left-footed center-back with various European experience and 40 MLS caps under his belt. While the Norwegian fell out of favor under Cushing, he’s proven to be a serviceable MLS center-back and definitely a good profile for an expansion team.

AL: Pretend Tyler Heaps here and I’m orchestrating a trade for Justin Haak, sending David Lee a nice bucket of GAM for the Brooklyn-born NYCFC Homegrown.

Haak is ineligible for selection in the Expansion Draft because he’s a Homegrown under age 25, but he’s also entering his final year under contract in 2025 and told the press immediately after the season ended that he wants “to be a starter somewhere” in 2025. He feels like a no-brainer fit for an expansion club, as he’s got MLS experience but hasn’t quite broken through as a regular starter in the league; he is uniquely versatile, proving he can play at MLS level as a defensive midfielder and as a central defender; and he’s on the cheap side in terms of salary cost, earning $165,000 in 2024.

OS: Well, let’s hope that Heaps doesn’t read any of the wisdom contained in this post and instead makes his picks from other clubs. But the fact is that any protected list New York City put together will leave two or three highly desirable players exposed, and the club just might lose a player to an Expansion Draft that you all agree shouldn’t even be in place.