In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Sam Svilar of Stumptown Footy to learn more about the Portland Timbers, New York City FC‘s home opener opponent at Yankee Soccer Stadium on Saturday. Here is your NYCFC vs Portland Timbers preview.
1. Not a bad way to start the season
Hudson River Blue: Portland missed the 2023 MLS Playoffs by one point but started this season strongly, winning the season opener 4-1 against the Colorado Rapids then drawing 2-2 with DC United. How do fans of Portland feel about their team’s performances?
Sam Svilar: The vibe in Portland is currently “cautiously optimistic but please oh please don’t hurt me again.” The Timbers are playing with a structure and a plan unlike what we saw from the team over the past few years, and it has been very refreshing. I don’t think even the most positive fan could have predicted the explosion the Phil Neville era started with against the Rapids, and so everyone has been pleasantly surprised with the team so far, especially on the offensive end.
That being said, some of Portland’s bad habits reared their ugly head last weekend and the Timbers let a 2-0 lead slip at home. It was a cautious reminder that despite the improved structure and improved vibes, this team still has frailties and isn’t the complete package.
2. No Blanco? No problem
HRB: How has Portland looked without MLS legend Sebastián Blanco in the midfield? It’s only been two games so it’s hard to tell what the full effect will be.
SS: Blanco’s departure had more of an emotional impact than an on-field one, if we’re being honest.
Seba was the fiery soul of the Timbers during his time in Portland, and adopted the role of emotional leader for the club in his latter seasons. But on the field, Blanco’s role diminished significantly in 2022 and 2023 due to injury. He was still capable of magic, but he was not looked on to be the consistent difference maker he had been from 2018 to 2021.
Enter, Santiago Moreno. The Colombian winger/midfielder has inherited the role of dynamic attacker that Blanco’s absence left, and he’s been electric in that spot. His play, along with the ad-hoc playmaking from Eryk Williamson, has helped ensure that Portland’s midfield still hums and makes things happen — even with the continued absence of record-signing Evander.
3. Midfield will need to be sharp on the ball
HRB: Portland won all three of its games against NYCFC at Yankee Stadium. How will the Timbers look to continue their strong record in the Bronx this Saturday?
SS: We saw last weekend how Portland struggled to cope against a well-organized pressing scheme, and so Saturday will come down to how well they play out of pressure.
With the limited space the field at Yankee Stadium offers, Portland will have very little room to try to move the ball as quickly as they need to retain it. How well they can keep the ball, and how quickly they can move it upfield, will say a lot about their chances.
A big factor that will contribute to that is the pay of the midfield, specifically Eryk Williamson. Evander is still day-to-day with a calf injury and just returned to regular training, so Williamson will be asked to be the straw that stirs the drink. How well he retains possession and finds attackers like Moreno or Antony will go a long way toward whether Portland continues that sterling record in the Bronx or not.
Eryk Williamson’s goal against the Colorado Rapids
4. The X-Factor: How Portland handles being away from Providence Park
HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?
SS: Portland has yet to play an away game this year, and it is an open question as to how Phil Neville will want them to play. Giovanni Savarese routinely set up his team for “bunker n’ counter” on the road, and it’s unknown if Neville will try to continue that.
So far, Neville’s Timbers have prioritized attempting to play with the ball and organized passing moves to transition from defense to attack, and then create chances in the final third. Will he ask them to continue to do so on Saturday, or will he try to strike a more direct and pragmatic approach?
And underlying all of that…can Portland execute Neville’s vision? He attempted to shift the team to a back five last weekend after taking a 2-0 lead and it, uh, didn’t turn out very well. Can the team execute the plan for their first away day?
5. Predicted Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
SS: On paper and by form, the Timbers are probably favored in this one. But I just don’t know enough about how this current iteration will play on the road to trust them to get a win. Considering the flaws both teams are dealing with at the moment, a 1-1 draw feels right.
Will NYC FC score a goal is the first question that comes to mind. I hope that I am wrong, because it seems we are stuck with him,but I think Cushing just doesn’t have what it takes to make this team a champion. Put aside the roster fiasco Lee handed him, something about the way this team often doesn’t seem up for games, switches off, misses sitters, shows a lack of creativity… along with what I would say are lack of substitutions and questionable substitution choices…Nicks comments in interviews are head scratching and redundant. When he talks about how the team or this player looked so good in training/ practice… like dude, the team is playing against itself. The fact they look like doo doo against other competition might be a clue your practices aren’t good enough to translate to real games. I think the talent may be a bit overrated, especially by Cushing, but in the end NYC FC should score more and win a few more games and the reason they don’t is, I think, Nick is pretty close to clueless about what to do with this club. Lee is also incredibly lucky there was a stellar core in place before he took over cause it looks like he doesn’t have much of a clue on how to rebuild. Hope they win every game from here on out, Nick gets Manager of the Year and I look like a fool.Also, talent does not seem to develop under Cushing, if anything it suffers. Magno and Santi to name the obvious. Sands doesn’t look so good right now either… wow, this team is a shit show right now.
Yeah, we stink right now. But, in all fairness, we’re just two games in, and both were on the road. We just completed the transition late in the winter window and several key players haven’t been fully integrated yet.As awful as last year was, if seven of those draws were wins, we would have finished something like fourth or fifth in the conference. That’s just seven goals. As it is, we just barely missed the playoffs.The year before that, we were 30 minutes from the MLS Cup Final on the road in Philadelphia before the wheels came off. A lot of people blame Cushing for the set piece substitution, which is fine, but the point is we were right there. The year before that, we went five straight games without scoring a goal on our way to winning the Cup (and people were calling for Ronny Deila’s head).So yeah, we’re a mess at the moment, but it’s premature to say we’re a disaster in the making. A lot can happen over the course of a season. And given the fact Nick hasn’t had a full, stable squad yet as gaffer, it’s far too soon to call him a failure.If we get a few more games in — say, a third of the way into the season — and we still look like crap, then I’ll really begin to worry. But for now, it’s wait and see. One thing is for sure: We have the guys we wanted, so there are no excuses.
Timbers are always hard team to beat no matter what. and we are no where close to beat ‘any’ team now. while ‘allowed’ for the incompetent skipper doing a bit more crazy if he will, i’d suggest to put a starting 11 a bit more stress-test minded. we’d need to figure out the long term stability by exploring more. i’d propose 3 back here. Mijatovic Santi Wolf Ojeda Fernandez Parks Perea Risa Haak Martins Freese
I like it, but I’m afraid we won’t get much from the back. Not that we’re getting much anyway, but maybe Ilenic in a 4-2-3-1 and either Ojeda or Fernandez off the bench? On paper, there’s a lot of flexibility, which in itself is a welcome change. I’m sure fitness is a huge factor at this point, though. We probably won’t be able to take full advantage of the roster depth for a while. But not too long. These guys are young. They should get going pretty quickly.
KJR – the one thing you mentioned that worries me is, “I’m sure fitness is a huge factor at this point, though.”Why do you think that? Are you saying from a typical early season standpoint of any club, or do you have concerns that the offseason training wasn’t where it needed to be? If it’s the latter, that would be really frustrating. I would hate to think we dropped our first two matches partially because of conditioning. (I would think the guys are all pros and put in the work, but I have no actual insight into that.)Regardless, go City! Looking forward to the home opener.
@KJRyes i hear ya on the back three. 2 recent observations here, tho: 1. last two games, offense contribution from both O’toole & Illenic was literally minimal, if not it stopped at their foots in the buildups. O’toole was slow, Illenic seemed possessed by a demon looking scared. 2. Risa, Martin also Haak—in his last show-up—all of them are recently trying to ‘feed’ the balls to the front line skipping the buildups. hopeless Cushing obviously seems staying in the limbo between possession based play—believing himself as another Pep—or good ol’ english kick and rush crapshoot, but seems worth trying that. including the 2nd half of 2023, that numbers of possession literally resulted hence meant NOTHING. he can’t expect to see difference while trying the same shits. even the last worldcup showed the dying trend of possession soccer. when you have fast youngsters up in the front, why not trying… whether 3 or 4 backs, we are still vulnerable at set pieces and counters. what we need to prioritize is scoring over worrying about the D.