Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC’s opponent in the final 2024 Leagues Cup group stage match on Monday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Missing defenders = losing streak

Hudson River Blue: After dominating Inter Miami 6-1 in early July, Cincinnati went on to lose their last three Major League Soccer games, two of which were on home soil. Cincinnati are only five points behind Miami heading into the Leagues Cup break, but what’s been going on with last season’s Supporters Shield winners?

Laurel Pfahler: You could point to a lot of issues that were piling up even before that, but for some reason, suddenly, it all became unmanageable in that three-game stretch.

FCC lost MLS Defender of the Year Matt Miazga to a season-ending knee injury on June 15, then fellow centerback Nick Hagglund went down the following week – all while Miles Robinson was away for Copa America. Coach Pat Noonan moved some players around, and FCC still managed to win five of six games in that time, including that “statement” Miami game. (The players and coaches were humble about that one, knowing Messi and several others were missing, but the Herons had been winning games without them leading into it, so it still felt like a nice win.)

 Then the three-game losing streak followed. It was like they had put everything they could into getting through that stretch right after the injuries, players knew they needed to step up and they were managing results, though some were ugly wins. And, the energy just ran out.

The bandaids they had in place to fix the defense could only hold up for so long. Robinson was back for the Charlotte match on July 13 but got a red card and couldn’t play the next match before leaving for the Olympics. At the same time, Noonan switched up the formation to a 3-4-2-1 (from a 3-4-1-2) and started almost exclusively using Luca Orellano at right wingback or as a dual 10 so he could get his best midfielders and defenders available on the field together, and it seemed the attack lost its identity trying to figure out who worked best at forward in that new setup.

U22 forward Kevin Kelsy had gotten off to a strong start as an addition at the end of the primary transfer window, but suddenly was not playing as much, and then Luciano Acosta injured his other foot (he had been playing through some pain in one foot) and did not play against Chicago on July 17 and only played the second half against Red Bulls on July 20, not looking his best.

FCC finally got a new center-back in with the acquisition of Chidozie Awaziem, and he looked solid in his debut Thursday, playing a full 90 minutes despite having only one week with the team and this essentially being his preseason. I think the biggest issue right now is the lack of identity on offense and Acosta not being available as he tries to get fully healthy (which he should). It also doesn’t help that DP forward Aaron Boupendza just hasn’t meshed with the group this year and is wasting away on the bench and currently not even with the team, due to what Noonan says is an extended illness.

2. Winning Leages Cup is a clear-cut goal

HRB: With Cincinnati looking to win MLS Cup this season, will head coach Pat Noonan also be trying to win Leagues Cup? Or does he see this as a chance to rotate his squad and give some other players a chance instead to avoid injuries?

LP: Sort of both.

The goal is to keep playing games because the two-week break after losing in the Round of 32 last year seemed to take the wind out of the sails in the return to MLS play (bad loss at Columbus and lost a two-goal lead to Miami in the US Open Cup semifinals), and Noonan believes the team needs to be playing well going into the final nine league games. And yes, he would like to win Leagues Cup because there are fewer chances to earn Concacaf Champions Cup berths this year with no US Open Cup participation and the Supporters’ Shield race is looking really tough as well.

At the same time, FCC absolutely has to get guys healthy that aren’t (ie Luciano Acosta and now DeAndre Yedlin, who was injured in training last week), and the absences mean there is natural rotation. If these were important league games, Acosta probably would be playing because that’s how he is, but with the main (unspoken) goal being MLS Cup this year, it’s vital he takes this time to get better. The hope was the team could get through the group stage even with some rotation and fortunately that worked out.

 So now with a spot in the Round of 32 secure, the team can take advantage of the opportunity to rotate some of the guys that did play Thursday to make sure the best lineup is available for the knockout games. I know seeding could be impacted by that approach, but perhaps I think the hope might be to get by with more of a mixed lineup that will help build depth for later and then if needed turn to the benched starters to get the result late in the match.

3. Luciano Acosta has aged like fine wine

HRB: As expected, Luciano Acosta has been lights out this season, leading the league with 15 assists, 19 big chances created, and 82 chances created. How is Cincinnati able to consistently get the best out of him? And how long will he be the guy for Cincinnati?

LP: Acosta says he is “like a fine wine” because he gets better with age, and it sure seems that way. He’s just so good.

I asked him if he thinks he’s playing better than last year’s MVP season and he said he can’t say that until the season is over, but he’s like two goal contributions off last year’s total. The lack of a consistent scorer at the forward position (Yuya Kubo has nine goals but gets pulled into other spots too often) has made him that much more vital to FCC, but he has more assists this year because the team is getting goals from other spots on the field. Noonan has done a really good job of building the game plan around Acosta and making sure he is receiving the ball in positions where he’s facing goal. That was something he noticed was not happening prior to his arrival, and that simple change allowed FCC to get the best out of him.

I just don’t see him slowing down, if he can stay relatively healthy even. FCC has him on contract through 2026, along with an option for 2027, so I don’t think there will be a changing of the guard any time soon.

4. The X-Factor: Will Luciano Acosta play?

HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: Whether Acosta plays or not would be the biggest deciding factor in the game. I don’t personally see him starting and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not on the bench for a second straight game, but FCC is not the same without him and that could be a huge advantage to NYCFC. The Orange and Blue still created plenty of chances Thursday against Queretaro, but that was an opponent that has been struggling, and the finishing was awful. It should have been at least 3-0. They have to figure out how to work better in the final third without their playmaker. An early lead for NYCFC could be detrimental to FCC otherwise.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: This is anyone’s guess, but I think now would be a good time to give Yuya Kubo, Pavel Bucha, and Luca Orellano a rest to have them fresh for the knockout stage. Bucha has proven he can handle a large workload but now might be a good time to rest him up and give his backup some time. Obinna Nwobodo only played 27 minutes Thursday so he still starts, but he could still be one to watch as a guy that might be managed.

I’m also sitting goalkeeper Roman Celentano so backup Evan Louro has a chance to get playing time with the first team, and my guess is Acosta and Yedlin are still out or limited on the bench.

NYCFC 2-1. I think FC Cincinnati takes the chance to rest guys, doesn’t push Acosta or Yedlin back in and New York will be able to capitalize on that.