In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Ben Wright of SixOneFive Soccer to learn more about Nashville SC, New York City's opponent on Sunday. Here is your NYCFC vs Nashville preview.
• League Form: L-L-W-W-L
• Record: 14W, 5D, 7L | 47 points, 3rd Place in Eastern Conference
• Scoring Leader: Sam Surridge, 18 goals
• Assist Leader: Andy Nájar, 7 assists
1. Supporters' Shield contenders
Hudson River Blue: After drawing 2-2 to NYCFC on May 31, Nashville won four straight MLS games, but that form dipped recently, winning just two of its last five. Nashville remains third in the Eastern Conference, but do they have what it takes to win the Supporters' Shield?
Ben Wright: In theory, they should have what it takes to win the Shield. They’ve shown they can hang with the top teams in the East, but they have a really tough stretch of games coming up – two matches against Orlando, a trip to Cincinnati, and a Decision Day meeting with Miami. The top of the East is a grind, and those teams are all going to take points off each other. It feels like a war of attrition at this point.
2. It all flows through Surridge, Mukhtar
HRB: Nashville has five wins on the road this season, but has lost its last three matches away from GEODIS Park. What’s led to the recent road struggles?
BW: They’re super dependent on Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge for their attacking output. Those two have 30 goals between them. No one else on the squad has more than two. If teams are able to keep them quiet, or they just have an off night, Nashville are in trouble.
They’ve had some big results on the road this year, so I don’t think it’s necessarily an issue playing away from home. Last week, with Dan Lovitz injured, they became even more dependent on Andy Nájar and the right side of their formation for their attacking output. It left Surridge heavily isolated and played into St. Louis’s strengths. They’ll need to work on balance this week.
3. Sam Surridge vs Messi for Golden Boot?
HRB: Sam Surridge’s 18 goals this season are tied with Lionel Messi for the most in the league. Do you think Surridge can keep up his good run of form and win the Golden Boot?
BW: Absolutely. Surridge was solid last year, scoring 12 goals in a pretty anemic attack. With a more functional system and Mukhtar back to an elite level of chance creation, he’s been the beneficiary. Surridge also tends to score in bunches; he’ll go a few matches without goals and then score braces back to back. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him add 4-5 more before the year ends. As most things do, it’ll probably come down to how many Lionel Messi scores in that same time.
4. The X-Factor: Nashville's press
HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?
BW: I’m fascinated to see how Nashville press against NYCFC. Obviously, New York likes to play short and keep the ball on the ground, and they clearly take advantage of the smaller pitch. Nashville also like to keep things narrow and compact, but especially without the ball – they try and swarm to one side and isolate whoever has the ball, and then break quickly the other way. I think how New York plays through the press will be crucial.
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
BW: I think this will be tight, but I’m going with a 2-1 Nashville win.
