Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC's opponent on Saturday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Yedlin's departure could affect Cincinnati's defense, Supporters Shield hopes

Hudson River Blue: FC Cincinnati jumped to the top of the Eastern Conference with a 3-2 win over the Portland Timbers, but remains tied with San Diego FC in the Supporters Shield race. With gams against Philadelphia, Nashville, and Orlando remaining, does Cincinnati have what it takes to win the Eastern Conference and its second-ever Supporters' Shield?

Laurel Pfahler: A week ago, I would have said yes without question. But without yet knowing what FCC will do to replace DeAndre Yedlin, I think it’s a big risk shaking up the team like that at this stage in the season. Cincinnati has a ton of talent, but as of this writing, I can only assume the move pushes newcomer Ender Echenique to Yedlin’s spot, and that is not how Pat Noonan typically likes to roll with big games.

Echenique is insanely fast and has tons of potential, but he’s a winger they are going to be converting to wingback, and particularly when Luca Orellano is healthy and playing left wingback, they will be exposed big-time defensively. Noonan likes to have four in the back with one wingback creeping forward in the attack, so there is cover on counterattacks. That will look a lot different if you’ve got Orellano and Echenique both wanting to go forward and not as willing (I use that word loosely, it’s just not their strength) to defend.

I think the attack improves in that situation, and production outside of Kevin Denkey and Evander is definitely something needed, but I’m not sold this team is better without Yedlin simply because of the defense and leadership he provides. I think in the end, the Eastern Conference is too tight and it’s going to be close. The club mostly cares at this point in putting the team in a good position for the playoffs to make a push for the MLS Cup, whatever that looks like.

2. Kévin Denkey is the real deal

HRB: Kévin Denkey returned from injury against Portland and opened the scoring in the 10th minute. His seven game-winning goals are tied with New York City FC’s own Alonso Martínez for the most in MLS this season. How important is it that Denkey is back for the final stretch of the season?

LP: It’s crucial. Evander really stepped up in Denkey’s absence, but when a defense has to choose between extra pressure on Denkey or Evander, it’s going to free the other up to score more goals. On that goal Saturday, Pavel Bucha passed toward Evander, but Evander said he saw the defenders stepping toward him and Denkey running in behind him, so he stepped over the ball and let it through. Denkey can do the same for Evander. The partnership with Evander and Denkey has really come a long way since the beginning of the season, and they account for 29 of the team’s 42 league goals this season. The next leading scorer is Dado Valenzuela with five, and he’s not a regular starter. There’s a reason the club invested $16.2 million into acquiring Denkey, and he will play a huge role in any success the team achieves.

3 Evander: 2025 MLS MVP candidate

HRB: Evander’s 16 goals are the most from a midfielder this season, but he’s also provided eight assists. The Brazilian No 10 replaced former star Lucho Acosta, whose move to FC Dallas failed miserably and ended with a transfer to Fluminense earlier this month. Considering how things have turned out, how impressed are you with Cincinnati for bringing in Evander in place of Acosta?

LP: I admit, I was skeptical at first because this team has relied so heavily on Acosta running the show the past few years, and early on, it did not seem like anyone knew what they were doing without him. Evander is not the same player, and he doesn’t want the ball at his feet all the time like Acosta did, so that was an adjustment for Noonan and the players. Evander also needed some time to develop chemistry and learn how those around him play, and early on, it just seemed like he was on a different wavelength than everyone else and getting a little lucky with some deflections on shots that turned into goals.

Something started to click for him around May, and he’s been really impressive since then. His xG of 6.1 is crazy low for the number of goals he actually has, and there is no luck involved now. He is so dangerous outside the box and on set pieces, and he’s finding his teammates in dangerous spots now, too, with some incredible assists.

There was always upside in the deal because of his set-piece delivery and age (four years younger than Acosta at 27 vs 31), but he has been better than advertised the last few months. It was clearly time for FCC and Acosta to part ways — it was either him or GM Chris Albright, he said, and the club backed Albright. There’s no recovering from that, unfortunately. It’s a shame it didn’t work out for him in Dallas, but FCC came out ahead.

4. The X-Factor: DeAndre Yedlin's departure

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: How they handle Yedlin’s departure will be the X factor, both tactically speaking and mentally, for the players that weren’t thrilled to lose a veteran starter and leader. If Echenique plays RWB, it’s a question of how he handles a new position, but he opens space for everyone with his speed and theoretically will be able to do that better on the right flank than when he was up top in his last start and looked a little lost. He played a bit at left wingback in his first four games, but is naturally right-footed, so it will be interesting to see how he fits into that role. Lukas Engel can provide the extra cover on the back line when Echenique moves forward, but he will have to play some defense, too.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: Orellano, centerback Miles Robinson, and defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo remain out of training due to injury (as well as forward Sergio Santos and homegrown goalkeeper Paul Walters). Robinson was injured late in last weekend’s game at Portland and hasn’t been training, so that’s a big blow not to have him. Orellano was injured August 10 against Charlotte, but they have cover for him with Lukas Engel sliding back to LWB, where he began the season. He’s been playing left centerback lately, so Orellano can play wingback instead of in the front three. Brian Anunga has filled in nicely for Nwobodo, who is out indefinitely following a June 25 quadriceps tear, but Nwobodo still has been missed. 

I’m going with a 1-1 draw because even though I think the centerback depth is good enough to manage a game without Robinson, it’s too much change at once on that right side to also lose Yedlin. This team is one that will fight and stay in it, but FCC hasn’t played as well at home for some reason the past couple of years, so a draw just seems fitting.