Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC's opponent on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Cincinnati is thriving, center backs returning from injury

Hudson River Blue: Cincinnati had an up-and-down start to the season, but has won its last five games to go to the top of the Eastern Conference. What has worked so well for Cincinnati recently, and can it sustain the momentum?

Laurel Pfahler: The biggest difference has been getting center backs Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund back from their 2024 season-ending injuries within the last five weeks and just developing more chemistry as the attackers get more games together.

It was a really strange preseason with three players not reporting on time and then one of those guys, Lucho Acosta, forcing his way out for a late trade to FC Dallas. Cincinnati was fortunate to be able to replace him right away with Evander, but he arrived right before the start of the season and there wasn’t time for him and new forward Kévin Denkey to get on the same page. Luca Orellano, who moved from wingback to forward late last year, had a contract dispute on top of a leg issue in preseason and didn’t start right away. Then, competing in Champions Cup forced a lot of rotation in the lineups and there wasn’t much time to work on things in training with all the games and travel.

So, the attack is really just now starting to come together, but in the meantime, the defense has done pretty well with the exception of one or two games, and it’s looked even better since Hagglund returned on March 22, followed shortly after by Miazga. They are both so vocal and bring energy on the pitch, and their communication has made a big difference in how organized the defense looks, especially with Miazga back in the middle.

2. Kévin Denkey: Six goals in nine games

HRB: Kévin Denkey — Cincinnati’s new No 9 from Cercle Brugge — hit the ground running, scoring six goals in nine games. With former strikers like Niko Gioacchini and Kevin Kelsy gone, and Yuya Kubo hurt, are you confident Denkey can lead the offense?

LP: Yes. Last year, FC Cincinnati had a revolving door at forward, just trying to find the right fits without a true goal scorer at that position. Things didn’t work out with Aaron Boupendza (rest in peace; he tragically died two weeks ago in China), and Gioacchini was a Hail Mary replacement at the end of the summer transfer window and didn’t have a single goal contribution. Kubo and Orellano were both playing other positions and ended up the most productive attackers, scoring 10 goals each, but Kubo has been best coming off the bench and Orellano is probably more effective as a wingback.

Denkey gives FCC a proven goal scorer who still is early in his prime at age 24. He was the Golden Boot winner in Belgium for the 2023-24 season and now has four goals in his last five games, and four of his six MLS goals have been game-winners. He’s the real deal and looking really confident now.

3. Evander is slowly starting to fit in

HRB: Acosta’s move to FC Dallas sent shockwaves throughout the league this winter, but bringing in Evander from Portland as his replacement made a strong statement. He already has six goals this season and has slotted into the lineup with ease. Looking back at the transaction now, was getting rid of Acosta and bringing in Evander the right move?

LP: I’ll start by saying what Acosta brought to the team was really special. He had the ability to just take over games, and you always knew that if things weren’t going well, he could do something magical. I don’t see that in Evander yet, but I think in the long run, it helps the team to have a guy that the attack doesn’t always have to run through to be successful.

Evander can absolutely step up and make things happen, and he has in a couple of games. He’s a younger talent the team can build around, but I don’t see players always looking for Evander like they did with Acosta. That has its positives and negatives, because now others can get more involved and the team is less predictable, but on the other hand, it seems like maybe the chemistry and trust aren't fully there with him and his teammates yet. I think it’s just taking some time.

Evander’s ability on free kicks is just insanely good, so that is a definite upgrade. He’s already scored a couple of goals on direct kicks and he should have more assists on some of the balls he has perfectly lofted into dangerous spots, just out of the goalkeeper’s reach. Knowing the club had to move on from Acosta, I think Evander was about as good of a replacement as one could hope for in such a short period of time.

4. The X-Factor: The narrowness of the Citi Field pitch

HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: I’m going to say that the narrowness of the pitch is probably going to be a big challenge for FC Cincinnati. The passing so far this season hasn’t looked consistently good, and with the dimensions at Citi Field taking away the ability to spread NYCFC’s defense out wide, the Orange and Blue are going to have to be much better going up the middle. Defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo would be the X-factor in that. He likely will be available for his first start since March 22 (he played about 30 minutes off the bench Saturday), so that should help because he’s much better at finding the connecting passes to Pavel Bucha or Evander and others than his backup, Brian Anunga. FCC also hasn’t been great going over the top of defenses but might need to do that in this game to be successful.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: FC Cincinnati 1, New York City FC 0.

Cincinnati has been tough to beat in close games, and I think the Orange and Blue are playing well enough right now to find just enough to win this one. It might take an Evander golazo off a free kick to beat NYCFC on the road, but that’s not a bad weapon to have in a game like this.