In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Michael Battista, who covers the Tri-State Soccer Scene and writes the Open Cup Digest for Hudson River Blue, to learn more about the Red Bulls, New York City FC’s opponent in the Hudson River Derby at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon. Here is your NYCFC vs Red Bulls preview.
• League Form: W-L-W-L-D
• Record: 5W, 3D, 5L | 18 points, 8th place
• Scoring Leader: Eric Choupo-Moting, 7 goals
• Assist Leader: Omar Valencia, 5 assists
1. A mediocre 2025 after a thrilling 2024
Hudson River Blue: The Red Bulls reached the MLS Cup Final last season after an outstanding playoff run. What are the club’s expectations for this season? And how do you assess the team’s season so far?
Michael Battista: The New York Red Bulls' expectation is funny. At MLS Media Day, Emil Forsberg said "Making the final should make us realize that we're a good team. We have to have high expectations from ourselves and to keep demanding more." But I don't think RBNY is in a "cup or bust" mentality. I think many in the organization know that last year was a good team that clicked at the right time.
They wanted to make a more offense-heavy team. That hasn't come to fruition with injuries and adjustment periods playing a role. The defense isn't as good as it was in 2024, with Andrés Reyes gone and other departures in the midfield. Overall, the Red Bulls feel mediocre right now looking for a kick in the ass. Is that going to be the 7-0 win? Lewis Morgan coming back? A surprise Timo Werner summer signing? I don't know.
2. The Red Bulls score goals, but need Lewis Morgan back
HRB: The Red Bulls sold Dante Vanzeir and brought in Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting — a transaction that has proved beneficial, as he has seven goals this season. Emil Forsberg has also been solid, totaling five goals and three assists. With the injury to Lewis Morgan, how confident are you in the Red Bulls' offense with Choupo-Moting and Forsberg at the forefront?
MB: I am middling to OK in confidence. Emil Forsberg was brought in to be a playmaker, and he's doing just that. I get nervous when the team is relying on him for scoring. He's never been a top goal scorer in his career.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is 36, and of his seven goals, two are penalties and two came against the worst club in MLS. That being said, he's scored in five of the last eight games and in two straight games. I don't know if this pace is tenable, but maybe he is finding himself in Major League Soccer. Until Lewis Morgan gets back, I am not going to feel comfortable because New York still lacks that killer in the final third. But for the time being, this offense has its moments. Enough to get points against good teams, but also drop them against bad ones.
3. The Red Bulls have the confidence to beat NYCFC again
HRB: Saturday’s match will once again be played at Citi Field — the venue where the Red Bulls eliminated NYCFC in the Conference semifinals last season. How much does that affect the Red Bulls' mindset for the Derby? And does it give them more confidence that they can win again?
MB: Last year's semifinal win shouldn't affect the Red Bulls at all. Something Sandro Schwarz and the players have really emphasized is that last year was last year. I'm sure some of the guys, the Peter Stroud or Daniel Edelman types who grew up through RBNY system, will always remember that game. But it will remain just that on Saturday: Just a memory.
The Red Bulls will have the confidence to win again because every player on that field, for either team, knows they can. The MLS regular season both matters and doesn't. RBNY lost both regular-season games last year but went on to win the first-ever playoff meeting between the two. Anytime the Hudson River Derby is played, anything can happen. That probably gives more confidence than anything that happened in 2024.
4. The X-Factor: Weather and injuries
HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?
MB: Weather and injuries. It wouldn't be a Red Bull game without rain, and it looks like Saturday could have some. Not sure if it will be before or during. But wet soccer always ups the unpredictability.
Plus, Omar Valencia is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card in MLS.
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
MB: Matthew is making me send this in before New York's media day. But going into Nashville, the team had five players listed as out: Roald Mitchell, Marcelo Morales, Lewis Morgan, Dylan Nealis, and Serge Ngoma. Morgan is close to returning, but I'm not sure this is the game. Serge could be ready, but again, I don't know. Dylan Nealis is a long way out, and I am unsure of the other two's timeline, though no offense, they aren't main players.
This is really a Battle of Mid between NYCFC and RBNY. I lean Red Bulls, not just because I'm the only one on this website who covers them and leans that way, but because New York City's offense is worse off. This feels like a perfect game for a 1-0 boring result, with someone like Peter Stroud scoring out of nowhere.
