In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Michael Battista, who covers the Tri-State Soccer Scene and writes the Open Cup Digest for Hudson River Blue, to learn more about the Red Bulls, New York City FC’s opponent in the Hudson River Derby at Sports Illustrated Stadium on Saturday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Red Bulls preview.
• League Form: W-L-D-L-W
• Record: 12W, 7D, 12L | 43 points, 10th place
• Scoring Leader: Eric Choupo-Moting, 16 goals
• Assist Leader: Emil Forsberg, 7 assists
1. Lack of depth, injuries have hurt the Red Bulls
Hudson River Blue: The New York Red Bulls are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2009. After reaching the MLS Cup last season and bringing in Eric Choupo-Moting, what’s gone wrong for the Red Bulls this season?
Michael Battista: The New York Red Bulls entered 2025 losing close to 10 players from the run to the MLS Cup Final, including fan favorites like Ryan Meara (shoutout to one of the few players to play for RBNY and NYCFC) and centerback Andrés Reyes (just don't ask him about MLS Cup). Not even mentioning that Frankie Amaya left mid-season. Yes, the team has brought in big names like Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting and Alexander Hack. It made some fans seriously think there could be another run to a championship or at least make RBNY a contender.
But the biggest issue in 2025 has been the team's lack of depth. Across all competitions, Choupo-Moting and captain Emil Forsberg account for 30 of the team's 51 goals. Just two years ago, the 2023 squad saw the top six goal scorers separated by just one to four goals across all competitions. This year? Third-place Mohammed Sofo, who has cooled down greatly in recent months, is five behind second-place Forsberg.
The injuries exacerbate this issue. Midfielder and team-leading goal scorer last year, Lewis Morgan, has only played three games across 2025. Last week, he re-aggravated the quad injury and missed the game against CF Montreal. Fellow Scottish midfielder (he's a dual citizen) Cameron Harper has also been out injured. Forward Wiktor Bogacz has an ankle injury, and goalkeeper AJ Marcucci had a horrific injury in the Open Cup against Philadelphia, forcing New York to sign two-time MLS Cup champion and former Ocean City Nor'easter John McCarthy. And midfielder Felipe Carballo, the man who sank New York City FC fans' hearts last year in the playoffs, did not have his loan extended and left this summer.
These injuries and departures mean the Red Bulls keep digging deeper into a bench that isn't showing it can be trusted. The front office used the summer signing window to bring in two Red Bulls II guys, Gustav Berggren, and McCarthy. The Timo Werner acquisition never came to pass, which could have been a nice injection into the offense (assuming the aging German transitioned well).
To quote an article by MetroFanatic, "(Head of Sport Jochen Schneider) has CHOSEN to keep the third DP slot open. (Clearly, there is no other player except for Werner deemed good enough to fill it...) At the same time, Schneider claims (absolutely correctly) that leaving the slot open has a negative effect on the team."
The playoff streak is in jeopardy, but considering all that's happened, it's no real shock. Heck, when the New York Red Bulls made the MLS Cup in 2008, then they missed the postseason the following year in 2009, and then the playoff streak started. Maybe it's just history repeating itself.
Mark Radigan
2. Summer signing Gustav Berggren is adjusting
HRB: Summer signing Gustav Berggren was brought in to bolster the midfield. What have you seen from the Swedish midfielder so far?
MB: Tough to say. He's only played in three games thus far due to his VISA only getting approved in late August, two games coming off the bench and his first start last weekend against CF Montreal.
I've liked what I've seen, but I can also admit midfield is a place of great need for the Red Bulls, so a fresh face who does okay will always look good.
Someone whose opinion is more important than mine said that of RBNY head coach Sandro Schwarz. After the team's loss in Portland, James Birle of The Shot Magazine asked the coach about Berggren's performance in the second half when he and Ronald Donkor replaced Daniel Edelman and Peter Stroud.
"We need confidence, especially as a 6. As a 6 position you need the confidence with the ball." Schwarz said after the game. "You need this also in some difficult moments, not that we are afraid of doing mistakes, no, we have to take the ball and then with in a clear position in a clear to pass in the front foot and then to pass vertical. This is what I missed in the first half and it was in the second half better. But we need this from all our 6s, to think vertical."
Oliver Strand
3. Red Bulls are good at Sports Illustrated Stadium
HRB: The Red Bulls have struggled on the road this season, winning just twice, but are one of the best teams in the league at home, having picked up 33 points. With Saturday’s game a must-win for the Red Bulls, how important is it that it’s being played at Sports Illustrated Stadium and not elsewhere?
MB: I've never fully understood why some teams do well at home and poorly on the road, or vice versa. But looking at just Saturday, it's a perfect moment to save a season.
If there is any truth to the idea of the venue formerly known as Red Bull Arena (I miss it) being a fortress, the Red Bulls are living proof, earning their 500th regular-season point at the venue since it opened in 2010, and have the best home record of any MLS team since then.
Saturday's game can end the season for RBNY depending on how the Chicago Fire do against Columbus this weekend and Inter Miami next Wednesday. If it were in the Bronx or Queens, the doubt about road games would be there. The Red Bulls broke a six-year losing streak against the Philadelphia Union at home last month and have a win against Charlotte FC, one of the league's best, there too.
Don't forget, though, NYCFC have called Sports Illustrated Stadium home before, including in two Leagues Cup games this year, and are one win away from tying the team record of 12 home wins in a single season set back in 2012 (eat your heart out, Oliver Strand, I'll use the stats you bring up). So while a win on Saturday wouldn't add to that total, the home venue juju might linger and could go either way.
Oliver Strand
4. The X-Factor: NYCFC's tired legs, Red Bulls' DPs
HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?
MB: NYCFC's short rest and RBNY's two Designated Players. New York City's match against Inter Miami on Wednesday saw head coach Pascal Jansen confirm team-leading goal scorer Alonso Martinez is currently dealing with a quad injury. Both he and Thiago Martins have unclear status ahead of the Derby, and the rest of the squad looked out of sync in the second half against Inter Messi.
The other thing is the Red Bulls DPs, whom I've already mentioned. If Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Emil Forsberg start, New York has its best chance to score. They are really the key to the offense (despite not scoring in the team's last win north of the border). Their play can make or break the season at this point unless others start to pick up their weight consistently.
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
MB: The famed New York Times drama critic Alexander Woollcott is quoted as saying, "You haven't lived until you died in New York".
The New York Red Bulls' season will most likely die in the Hudson River Derby against New York City FC. Despite the short rest delt to their opponent, RBNY just does not have a team right now that can fully compete against other MLS playoff teams. A loss combined with a Chicago win either Saturday or Wednesday will officially seal the red team's fate of missing the playoffs and ending North America's longest current playoff streak in major sports. Final score, 2-1 NYCFC, because someone will give RBNY fans hope before the home side allows two goals.
