Oppo Research: 5 Things about Philadelphia Union

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Evan Konigsberg of Philadelphia Soccer Now to learn more about Philadelphia Union, New York City FC's opponent on Saturday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Philadelphia preview.

1. Bradley Carnell has Philadelphia flying

Hudson River Blue: The Philadelphia Union is in a great position to win its second-ever Supporters' Shield after missing the playoffs last season. How has first-year head coach Bradley Carnell completely transformed the Union in just one season?

Evan Konigsberg: Carnell has yielded results far past the expectations of many Union fans in his first season, yet I hesitate to call it a complete transformation.

While the results have improved drastically from last season, a significant reason why the transition has been so seamless is that Carnell's tactics are similar to how the Union lined up under Jim Curtin, with a few differences. To start, Carnell lines the team up in a 4-2-2-2 formation, typically with two holding midfielders and two attacking midfielders that stay relatively central, not traditional wingers. Jim Curtin famously sported the 4-1-2-1-2 for years in Philadelphia, with many of the same players on this year's team playing in that system. Another two-striker formation with an emphasis on pressing high up the field would not prove difficult to adapt to, allowing the Union to be competitive in year one under Carnell. Carnell may have tweaked this system, but the foundation was built for years at the club by Curtin.

Another key contribution to the turnaround is personnel. Many of the Union's stars this season were actually part of the Union roster previously, but for one reason or another did not get a chance to break through under Curtin. Curtin was a great coach, but he was known to have a Starting XI that he preferred and only rotated when absolutely necessary. Building chemistry and familiarity was crucial in forming one of the best defenses in MLS history in 2022, but perhaps that same characteristic made it more difficult to move on from this era when players started to leave the club.

The most glaring example of this is Tai Baribo, who has fully broken out as the Union's top goalscorer this season. In the midst of the stellar season Baribo is having, it may be easy to forget how rough his start was in Philadelphia. Signed on August 2, 2023, the Union front office had high hopes for him as a goalscorer. However, he did not receive regular starts until he broke onto the scene in late June of the next season. He took his momentum into the next month of MLS and then Leagues Cup, but it was not enough to bring home a trophy or even a playoff qualification.

Olwethu Makhanya also deserves a mention. Makhanya was signed in the same window as Baribo and was not given many opportunities in MLS last season. He played in MLS NEXT Pro in 2024 alongside Neil Pierre and won the Eastern Conference. While occasionally a rash tackler, Makhanya's technical prowess on the ball alongside his rapid pace and physicality have made for an instant improvement in the back four next to Jakob Glesnes.

The promotion of Makhanya also meant moving on from Jack Elliott. This was a tough one for Union fans, as Elliott was a member of the historic 2022 Union defense. However, it appeared it may be time to move on from the Englishman after a calamitous 2024 Union season. Elliott ended up on the Chicago Fire, who currently sit in 9th place. While their defense has been injured at times this season, they have conceded 54 goals, which is more than any team above 13th in MLS this season. Makhanya and Baribo have been two of the most significant contributors this season, and Carnell deserves praise for giving them an opportunity.

2. San Diego star Milan Iloski has adjusted

HRB: Former San Diego FC Star Milan Iloski joined the Union in August and has since scored two goals in seven league games. It’s not the best start to his Philadelphia career, but he’s already proven he can score goals in MLS. What have you seen from him so far?

EK: While the pure goalscoring numbers may not show it, Iloski has been phenomenal since he arrived. You may see two goals in seven league games, but I see three goals and four assists in nine matches in all competitions. That is a solid return for a player who played as a striker and an attacking midfielder without being given much time to adapt. He has had some crucial contributions as well, scoring an equalizer in the U.S. Open Cup Quarterfinal, assisting the winner in a massive Supporters' Shield race win over Cincinnati, and assisting the winning goal against New England.

His role in Philadelphia is a tad different than in San Diego, where he was used primarily off the bench as a winger or striker to finish off games. When he did get a chance to start, he scored four goals in a match at Vancouver. This contributed to Iloski having ludicrous goal-scoring numbers per 90 minutes, which would've been a tall ask to maintain in Philadelphia. Since he has signed, he has been given a much more crucial role in the squad, starting most matches but rotating out and coming off the bench when needed for rest. He has been utilized as both a striker and an attacking midfielder, bringing even more versatility to Carnell's squad. He is a quick dribbler that does not hesitate to shoot from distance, one that NYCFC defenders will not want to give space to come Saturday.

3. Philadelphia's injury woes

HRB: The injury bug has hit the Union recently, with 21-year-old Quinn Sullivan tearing his ACL and Indiana Vassilev wearing a brace after the 6-0 win over DC United. How do these offensive injuries affect Philadelphia heading into the playoffs?

EK: The Sullivan injury is a heartbreaker for the Union. Philadelphia invested in Quinn this season, rewarding his performances with a new contract. He has produced in his new role, starting a bit further up the field as an attacking midfielder in Carnell's system.

That said, depth is the weak spot of the Union's roster. Carnell has had mixed success when rotating this season. During the Gold Cup, the Union were down Sullivan, Harriel, Blake, and others, and managed to win matches against Charlotte and Chicago without some of their best players. However, more recently, rotation against the Whitecaps before the US Open Cup did not work out as well. The rotated squad the Union fielded were run off the field so badly that Carnell had to substitute some of them out before halftime, presumably to protect goal differential in the midst of a Supporters' Shield race.

If Vassilev and Sullivan cannot play on Saturday, I expect the Union to start Iloski and Bedoya in attacking midfield. While Bedoya was one of the poor performers against the Whitecaps, he was played out of his natural position at right back. I would expect Bedoya to be ready to perform when returned to a more familiar position.

The Union will be missing Sullivan for the entirety of the playoffs, but will hope to have Vassilev back. If Vassilev is unavailable, the Union will have to lean heavily on Iloski and Bedoya for creativity in midfield and will need Mikael Uhre to perform off the bench. Sullivan was an outlet for the Union in transition and will need someone to step up to fill that role. I could see Iloski or Uhre taking up more of that responsibility.

4. The X-Factor: The forwards for both sides

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

EK: The finishers of each team will decide the game. Despite the one-sided affair in DC, I do not expect a short-handed Union to play NYCFC off the pitch on Saturday. While that analysis feels surface-level at first, the strikers have been a focal point of the Union's team this season. Baribo started the season off as a golden boot candidate, but has slowed just a bit as the season has progressed. Beside him, the Union broke their transfer record this season for Bruno Damiani. Despite ranking highly among other forwards in MLS in touches, shot attempts, and aerial duels won, it did not immediately translate to goals, and he found himself snakebitten for the early parts of the season. The missed penalty against the Red Bulls felt like a backbreaker against a rival team. Yet, Damiani has been able to bounce back, scoring crucial goals against FC Cincinnati and New England. He was also very active early on in the demolition of DC United last weekend.

When it comes to NYCFC, the addition of Nico Fernandez has been crucial to their late-season turnaround. That said, Nico missed multiple quality chances early on against Inter Miami. This changed the momentum of the match drastically. Nico can be that X-factor for NYCFC, and if he brings his shooting boots and puts away an early chance, it could change this game drastically.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

EK: While NYCFC have put together a solid run in the second half of the season, the Union rarely lose at home. Subaru Park provides for a great home-field advantage, and I'm sure that the home fans will be even louder with a Supporters' Shield on the line. I predict that the Union will win 2-1.