Anybody who follows New York City FC will tell you that the Eastern Conference is unusually competitive this year. NYCFC currently sit in 8th Place despite having 44 points with seven games left to play — and have been stuck in 8th Place since July 19 despite winning three of the following four games.
To put that in context, the 8th Place team finished the 2024 and 2023 seasons with just 43 points. This year, New York City's 44 points have them struggling to climb above the two Wild Card spots; in any other year, that point tally would have them in 4th or 5th Place and aiming for a Top 4 finish to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.
No doubt about it, the East is tough this year. But when we took a closer look at the numbers, we were surprised to see that the East is shaping up to be the most competitive conference since 2011, when Major League Soccer moved to a 34-game season. At the same time, the West is looking to be one of the softest conferences in that same span of time.
MLS | Minimum Points Needed to Qualify for Playoffs
Note: 34-Game seasons only
51 Points in the East...
After looking at the historical data, the Hudson River Blue analytics team interns project it will take 51 points to finish in 9th Place in 2025, and make the postseason. If that proves to be true, it will be the most points earned by a 9th-place team in the history of the league, and the second-highest point tally to make the playoffs since 2011, trailing only the 53 points it took in 2012.
But that was a very different MLS. Only the Top 5 squads in the 19-team league made the playoffs back then — the 53 points earned by Houston Dynamo (who were in the East at the time) put them in 5th Place and into the MLS Cup Knockout Round. That year, New England Revolution finished in 9th Place with 35 points.
In 2013, it took 51 points to make the playoffs in the West — Colorado Rapids finished in 5th Place that year, ahead of San Jose Earthquakes only on goal differential. But as a point of comparison, Chivas USA finished in 9th Place that year with 26 points. In 2015, it once again took 51 points in the West. The playoffs were expanded to six teams from each conference the year before, and the season ended with Sporting Kansas City in 6th Place with 51 points, behind Seattle Sounders and LA Galaxy on wins and goal differential. That year, Real Salt Lake finished in 9th Place with 41 points.
In other words, this won't be the first time it will take 51 points to make the playoffs. But it will be the first time it takes that many points since the postseason format expanded past six teams in each conference.
Oliver Strand
...41 Points in the West
Over in the West, the projected 41 points it will take to make the playoffs will be the second-fewest since the introduction of the 34-season, trailing only the 40 points it took last year in the East.
Last year, Atlanta United snuck into the postseason with just 40 points, edging out DC United on goal differential -3 to -18. It's the lowest point tally for a playoff team in the modern era of MLS.
Could the West beat it this year? It's possible San Jose Earthquakes currently sit in 9th Place with 35 points after 29 games, just ahead of Houston Dynamo in 10th place with 33 points also after 29 games. San Jose took six points in their last five played, and they're on track to finish the year with 41 points, but they took just three points in their previous five games, and are more than capable of a face-plant that will have them end with 38 or 39 points. Houston also took six points in their last five played, which would give them 39 points. Barring a hot streak from Real Salt Lake (31 points after 27 games) or FC Dallas (31 points after 28 games), it is entirely within the realm of possibility that the 9th and final playoff spot in the west will go to a team with fewer than 40 points.
A 10-point gap between conferences
Should these projections prove to be true, there will be a 10-point gap between the two 9th-place teams in each league. That will equal the 10-point gap in 2012, when Houston finished in 5th Place in the East with 53 points, and Vancouver Whitecaps finished in 5th Place in the West with 43 points.
Often, the two conferences closely follow each other. In nine of the 14 years we charted, the cutoffs were within three points. But there was a seven-point gap last year, when Portland Timbers took the 9th playoff spot in the West with 47 points, while Atlanta needed just 40 points in the East.
It makes sense that that an expanded playoff field of nine spots per league would see teams with not many points sneak into the playoffs — four of the six lowest point tallies will have taken place since the new format was introduced in 2023. Which makes the projected 51 points it will take in East this year all the more remarkable: This should be one of the easiest years to advance to the playoffs, not the hardest.
But the East is tougher than ever, which is why NYCFC are still struggling to climb out of 8th Place despite having 44 points after 27 games.
Oliver Strand
