In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Ted Meyer of RFK Refugees to learn more about DC United, New York City FC’s opponent on Saturday at Citi Field. Here is your NYCFC vs DC United preview.
1. Troy Lessesne establishing new culture, identity
Hudson River Blue: After missing out on the playoffs last season, DC United has had an uneven start to the season. How do you assess DC’s inconsistent start under new head coach Troy Lesesne?
Tom Meyer: I think it is important to assess the goal for DC United this season, and it really goes beyond results. For the past few years, the only thing that has been consistent about DC United is being inconsistent with their vision. Since Ben Olsen was dismissed in 2020 they are on their non-caretaker third manager. Soccer staff in the front office under Dave Kasper cycled through for years with no real true direction established. It always appeared to be a directionless club attaching to whatever trend or idea without any real follow-through.
In 2024, the team cleaned out nearly their entire soccer staff. Ally Mackay has stepped in as General Manager and they have brought in Troy Lesesne as the new coach for the team. They have both talked at length about establishing a culture and identity that has been sorely lacking in recent years. I think most of us thought this would take some time. This year would essentially be a bridge year while we waited out some bad contracts and looked to be competitive in years to come. However, despite recent results, the identity has already taken hold, and nearly all the team’s moves this past offseason have appeared to have improved the team. It finally feels like the team is rowing all in one direction, and the team looks to be competitive in just about every game they have played this year.
As far as the results, they have really only been inconsistent because the team had a bad 20 minutes against Orlando last week, and if they had seen that game out they would be sitting 3rd in the East. That being said, they have struggled to finish opponents off or hold a lead. They have dropped eight points thus far from leading positions with last week being the worst of it. The biggest issue is they lack the depth. mostly due to the weight of mediocre players on bad contracts. One of the highest-paid left-backs in the league, Mohanad Jeahze, can’t even see the bench, let alone the field. I think that has contributed to an inability to see out games. They just don’t have the real depth to extend their advantage or see things out.
That being said, they are still getting incredible production out of some key players. Christian Benteke and Mateusz Klich have looked even better than last year as DPs and seem bought into Lesesne’s system. They have shown an ability to play better than their opponents and their press has helped them generate some very high-quality chances. The team is at the top on the xG charts and Benteke looks well and truly in the Golden Boot race. I think the results will start to come if they can keep this pace up, and if they can get out of some of the bad contracts and get some more help they could be a threat this year.
2. No secondary goal scorer = road struggles
HRB: DC remains winless on the road, drawing all four games. How can the team turn those draws into wins?
TM: I think mostly they need to figure out how to better finish chances. The team currently sits at 16.0 xG according to Opta, but they have just registered 12 goals. Benteke has gotten on the end for six goals this year, but they currently have no other player with more than one goal. The lack of true secondary scoring has hurt this team tremendously. The prime candidate to take that role is Ted Ku-Dipietro, but he hasn’t been consistently healthy enough to really develop a rhythm and has been moved further away from goal recently. If he isn’t healthy then they have to rely on journeymen such as Jared Stroud and Christian Dajome. While they have been serviceable, they haven’t really provided a reliable finishing touch.
They could also look to better see out games. However, their press inevitably will lead to counterattacks, which teams have found ways to score on. And slowing that down could impact their ability to effectively generate chances. Granted, while the defense has improved slightly from last year, I don’t think their defense is good enough to allow them to see out slim margins. Also if the depth is lacking anywhere it is in that position right now. Until Steve Birnbaum returns from injury, they don’t really have an effective and reliable bench option to help them see out games.
3. Christian Benteke: Right place, right time
HRB: Christian Benteke has started the season as expected with six goals in six games. What has led to his offensive spark and goal-scoring consistency?
TM: Honestly, it has been getting him in better spots. Last year the team used him heavily for his hold-up play, which they still do, but they have been also better about creating a short field. They are not solely relying on direct long balls for him to get down on away from goal. They have effectively used wingers and wingbacks to get into good positions to find him closer to goal where he can put a devastating header into the net or an easy five-yard finish. Granted they still do use his ability to dominate everything in the air as an escape valve in certain situations, but they are much less dependent on it than they were last season.
I will say he still struggles a bit with the ball at his feet and even when he gets great moments he has struggled to convert them consistently. He could be well above his current tally with some more clinical finishing. However, it is a good start and hopefully, he can continue it this year.
Christian Benteke’s hat trick vs New England
4. The X-Factor: Aaron Herrera, Mateusz Klich suspended
HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?
TM: Well, I will say fortunately for New York City FC, two of their biggest X-Factors will be suspended this week for yellow card accumulation. Aaron Herrera has been a monster for DC United, and their best player behind Benteke. He has shown an incredible ability to make plays on both sides of the ball. And their other DP Matuez Klich has been excellent in providing service and passing as well as contributing to the press.
I think the biggest X-factor could be what formation Troy goes with based on who he has around him. He hasn’t been shy of switching things up to throw teams off or manage his limited depth that way. I think we could see a return to the 3-5-2 despite the narrow playing field to fit all their best players on the field.
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
TM: With the suspensions and lack of depth, I think we see a 3-5-2. Bono in goal with Conner Antley, Christopher McVey and Lucas Bartlett at center back. The wingbacks will be Jared Stroud on the right, and Christian Dajome on the left. The midfield will be trickier but I think we will see Matti Peltola, Jackson Hopkins, and Gabriel Priani.
If Ted is healthy and ready to go then expect him to pair up top with Benteke. If not then perhaps we see Kristen Fletcher or potentially moving Pirani higher up the field.
As far as a final score, games in New York City outside of those at Red Bull Arena have been a house of horrors for DC United.
Also, it seems this year when I predict things to go poorly, things go well and when I predict them to go well, things go poorly.
I am going with a 2-1 win for New York City.
