In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Rob Usry of Five Stripe Final to learn more about Atlanta United, New York City FC’s opponent for the second time this season on Wednesday. Here is your NYCFC vs Atlanta preview.
• League Form: L-L-L-W-D
• Record: 6W, 6D, 11L | 24 points, 11th place
• Scoring Leader: Thiago Almada, 6 goals
• Assist Leader: Brooks Lennon, 5 assists
1. Atlanta are in decline
HRB: Atlanta has lost four straight matches, including an upset to USL Championship side Indy Eleven in the US Open Cup quarterfinals. Atlanta is 11th in the Eastern Conference but remain two points off a playoff spot. What’s the vibe like in the Peach State this season?
Rob Usry: Things have changed quite a bit since our teams last faced each other earlier this season. Bad luck compounded into a run of form that can only be described as devastating. An onslaught of injuries and bad results inevitably claimed [former Head Coach] Gonzalo Pineda’s job.
Not only that, the front office made the bold decision to go ahead and sell the team’s best two players in Giorgos Giakoumakis and Thiago Almada, effectively leaving the squad in shambles until the summer transfer window opens. Needless to say, the vibes are about as bad as they can be as every match feels like Bill Murray waking up to the same song over and over in Groundhog Day.
2. No Almada + Giakoumakis = problems
HRB: Atlanta lost their two main goalscorers in Almada (six goals, one assist) and Giakoumakis (five goals, one assist). How is the departure of two key offensive players affecting Atlanta?
RU: Very badly! That’s just the harsh truth. Saba Lobjanidze takes the reins as their most dangerous attacker but lately it’s looked like him vs the world in the final third. It’s a depressing state for the club and the attack mirrors the whole vibe.
3. Home-field advantage is fading
HRB: NYCFC historically struggle at Mercdes-Benz Stadium, with only one win, and that was back on Decision Day in 2022. How will Atlanta use home-field advantage against NYCFC on Wednesday?
RU: I’m not sure there’s much of a home-field advantage these days. Attendance is steadily dipping and this match coincidentally comes on the heels of the club announcing a poorly-timed season ticket price increase. It could be one of the worst crowds in club history.
Rob Valentino has taken over as manager in the interim and instituted a very pragmatic approach. I would expect to see NYCFC with way more possession than you normally would for a match at the Benz. It’s just a matter of them taking their chances and shutting down Atlanta’s transition moments.
4. The X-Factor: Brad Guzan
HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?
RU: Can’t believe I’m saying this but it’s Brad Guzan. Many have written him off and called for his time as No 1 goalkeeper to be over. But he just put on one of the best performances in years at CF Montréal. If Atlanta has any chance of getting a result in this one, they’ll need him to play out of his mind again and pray a goal can be unearthed from somewhere.
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
RU: 1-0 NYCFC.
