In this edition of the Hudson River Blue Roundtable, Andrew Leigh, Matthew Mangam, Mark Radigan, and Oliver Strand look ahead to New York City FC's matchup with Charlotte FC in Round One of the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs, which will begin on Tuesday, October 28 on the plastic turf at Bank of America Stadium.
First, the roundtable discusses what we we know about this best-of-three series. Then, the pundits play armchair manager and give Head Coach Pascal Jansen some unsolicited advice.
Scouting Report: What we know
• Home-field advantage is real
Charlotte earned 13 wins at home during the MLS season, the most of any team in the league. The record of 13W-1D-3L at Bank of America Stadium this season is imposing, and it’s not a flukey one-year period of dominance. Over the last two MLS seasons, Charlotte went a combined 22W-7D-6L in home matches and had the third-best home points per match number (2.09 PPM) of any MLS team in that time, behind only Inter Miami CF and LAFC (2.11 PPM).
New York City happen to have the same number of home wins, 22, as Charlotte since the 2024 season. Home-field advantage is huge in this series because both these teams are uniquely dominant on their home fields.
Where’s the hope for the visitors from New York City as they face a potential Game One and then must-win (if necessary) Game Three on the turf in North Carolina’s NFL stadium? Even with that scary-good record in 2025, and with the unbeaten head-to-head record vs NYCFC all-time, Charlotte hasn’t been untouchable at home this season.
Their expected goal differential at home was a +2.6 this season, which is only the 11th-best number in the Eastern Conference. Expected goals measures the quality of chances created both for and against a team, so in this instance, it can tell us that Charlotte hasn’t necessarily played teams off the pitch in their dominant 2025 season at home. Maybe their home results are due for a little visit from the regression monster as the playoffs begin.
— Andrew Leigh
• Long rest is good for New York City
Round One began last night, but NYCFC's first matchup will take place on Tuesday, October 28, to accommodate the Carolina Panthers game that will be played tomorrow afternoon — it takes two days to convert Bank of America Stadium from football to fútbol. The long rest is good news for NYCFC. Word is there was a bug going through the locker room in last week's loss to Seattle Sounders, and the extra days will allow the squad to rest up and recuperate.
More specifically, it will give an extra day or three of recovery time to Aiden O'Neill, who has gone nonstop for club(s) and country, by our count logging 5,158 minutes over more than 60 games these past 14 months — and who is instrumental to this New York City squad. O'Neill went the full 90 minutes for Australia's friendly on October 10, then did it again four days later on October 14. He sat out NYCFC's loss against Seattle – reportedly because of the bug mentioned above – which will give him a much-needed two-week rest between games.
— Oliver Strand
• No Wilfried Zaha is bad for Charlotte
Wilfried Zaha, Charlotte’s star winger who played for Crystal Palace for most of his career, will not play in Tuesday’splayoff game after being sent off against the Philadelphia Union on Decision Day.
Zaha has 10 goals and five assists in his first season with Charlotte, and entered the playoffs on a three-game scoring streak. Matt Freese and the New York City backline will breathe a sigh of relief knowing they won’t have to face him on Tuesday night.
That forces Charlotte head coach Dean Smith to put more of the scoring emphasis on striker Idan Toklomati, who hasn’t found the back of the net in his last four games after bagging a hat trick against Inter Miami on September 13.
— Matthew Mangam
Matthew Mangam
Armchair Manager: What we hope to see
• Earlier substitutions from Pascal Jansen
New York City went from having one of the worst benches in the league to one of the most impactful. Credit goes to the hard-running Julián Fernández and Agustín Ojeda, who can change the momentum of a game with their speed and intensity — the two combined for one goal in four assists in the last five games played, accounting for four of the nine goals New York City scored in that span.
Just as important, Fernández and Ojeda can help close out a game even when they don't score. See: The 3-2 win over New York Red Bulls, the 2-0 win over Charlotte.
Some unsolicited advice: Let the kids cook. Head Coach Pascal Jansen should make his attacking substitutions by the 65th minute to give the players time to create — and to torment the Charlotte defense. The last thing the 38-year-old Tim Ream wants to do is leg it through the first 60 minutes of a game only to face a 30-minute onslaught from Fernández and Ojeda.
— Oliver Strand
• Start Justin Haak at center-back
Raul Gustavo might be in the Starting XI, but it shouldn’t be as the lone partner for Thiago Martins in the center of New York City’s defense. That role should go to Justin Haak, with Jansen choosing a 4-2-3-1 formation that has Haak in thedefense and not in the midfield. This setup can shift to three-back when in possession — and when Haak decides to push further upfield, which he did with consistent success this season while functioning as almost a hybrid center-back and central midfielder.
There’s a possibility Jansen prefers a five-defender setup that includes all of Haak, Raul Gustavo, and Thiago Martins in central defense, with Kevin O’Toole also in the lineup as a left wingback. That would be too conservative a formation, even knowing that Charlotte is tough to beat on the road, and a five-at-the-back look would come at the cost of more attacking opportunities for players like Alonso Martínez or Hannes Wolf.
A midfield pivot of Aiden O’Neill and Andrés Perea lets Haak occupy his best role of the season. Haak’s flexibility and versatility give Pascal Jansen options, but here’s hoping he keeps it simple and goes with the setup that often succeeded during Haak’s season of starting all 34 MLS matches and playing the highest percentage of minutes of any player on the NYCFC roster.
— Andrew Leigh
Oliver Strand
• Alonso Martínez must find the back of the net again
This season, Alonso Martínez made history by cracking into the Top 3 of the all-time New York City goal-scoring charts, hitting 37 goals in just 71 career appearances for the Pigeons. The Costa Rican talisman followed up his standout 2024 campaign with 19 goals and 2 assists in all competitions in 2025 — that's 32% of the Pigeons' total goal tally.
But Martínez didn't end 2025 in blistering form. He hasn't scored for NYC since bagging a brace vs Charlotte at Yankee Stadium back on September 20th. Thankfully for the Pigeons, that's exactly who they face in Round 1 of the playoffs. And Martinez is no stranger to postseason action as well, having grabbed a goal in the famous 3-1 win over Cincinnati in Game 2 of the Best-of-3 series last November.
With the forward coming off an international break when he was the hero for Costa Rica, scoring a brace and adding assist vs Nicaragua to keep his nation's World Cup hopes alive, Martínez should be primed and ready to help the Pigeons extend their season deep into the fall.
— Mark Radigan
