It all comes down to this. The best-of-three series between New York City FC and Charlotte FC will be decided in a win-or-go-home Game 3 at 7:00 pm ET on Friday, November 5, at Bank of America Stadium in North Carolina.
New York City couldn't close Charlotte out at home, and now head back out on the road to try to keep their run through the MLS Cup Playoffs alive and book a trip to Chester, PA, to face the Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
What will it take to get a second straight win at Bank of America Stadium? It won't be easy, in part because goals have been at a major premium through two games. The simplest route to winning and advancing: Score one more goal than Charlotte, be it in regulation or in a decisive penalty-kick shootout if these teams play to a second straight draw.
The game is simple, but it's not that simple, which leads us to wonder what needs to happen on NYCFC's side to get the best of Charlotte and keep the season going. What follows is a few pieces of unsolicited advice for Pascal Jansen as he gets his team ready to play their biggest game of the season (so far).
There's no guarantee that following these five steps delivers the needed three points, but all these things happening would go a long way toward ensuring New York City's success on Friday night at Bank of America Stadium.
1. Tweak the personnel
It feels like a change is in order. Pascal Jansen decided to use the same Starting XIs for both Game 1 and Game 2. His team looked strong and comfortable while winning Game 1, then looked tentative and ineffective while going goalless at home in Game 2.
Hannes Wolf needs to start. New York City needs an attacking boost even if they have been the more consistently threatening side in this series, dwarfing Charlotte in expected goals (xG) in each match — 1.46 xG to 0.43 xG in Game 1, then 1.51 xG to 0.69 xG in the scoreless Game 2.
Jansen has been lining his squad up in a 3-2-4-1 formation with Kevin O'Toole and Tayvon Gray pushing forward as true wing-backs, and with Raul Gustavo, Justin Haak, and Thiago Martins as the trio anchoring the defense.
How do you fit Wolf in without sacrificing the defensive solidity that's kept Charlotte scoreless for 180 straight minutes in this series — and for 270 minutes dating back to their last regular-season meeting? Wolf has past experience serving as a wing-back, so he could come in as a like-for-like change with O'Toole, if Jansen prefers to keep his Raul-Haak-Thiago trio in central defense.
The formation has frequently been fluid under Jansen, so he could also keep O'Toole's wide defending in the lineup, but then it’s a choice of dropping a midfielder or a different defender. Raul Gustavo would be a defensive option to sit in favor of Wolf, but he's also started in both recent wins over Charlotte and has looked generally solid since arriving and acclimating after his summer signing.
