Oppo Research: 5 Things about New England

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Jake Catanese of The Blazing Musket to learn more about New England Revolution, New York City FC‘s opponent in the Round of 32 of Leagues Cup on Friday night. Here is your NYCFC vs New England preview.

1. Injuries lead to a losing streak

Hudson River Blue: The last time these two sides met, NYCFC defeated New England on the road in late May. After that, New England won four straight games but struggled heading into the Leagues Cup, losing four of their last six matches. What caused that winning run, and why did New England ultimately slip back into their losing habits?

Jake Catanese: Two key factors for that June run: the Revs heavy hitters were mostly healthy, and the Revs had broken out of their possession shell and started playing more direct soccer. Health-wise, the Revs have been without just about every major starter for the last month: Carles Gil, Giacomo Vrioni, Dylan Borrero, and Tomas Chancalay, who is on the season-ending injury list. Vrioni was electric in June as far as finishing goes, scoring six goals in six games from mid-June to mid-July. The team was getting early balls into the box, was much more aggressive on the counter, and was getting good performances from young players like Noel Buck and Esmir Bajraktarević. It was a refreshing change of pace from the first couple of months when the Revs were generally over-focused on possession and not getting the ball forward much, allowing defenses time to settle in.

Without Gil, Vrioni, and company, goals are going to be a little harder to come by, and there was some fixture congestion that didn’t help matters. Overall, I think the Revs have improved from the beginning of the year but health has played a major factor for them all season, and we’ll see if Gil and Vrioni are cleared for the knockout stages.

2. Giacomo Vrioni: From flop to playing lights out (until an injury)

HRB: Giacomo Vrioni had a slow start to the season, but the Albanian picked up his form in the summer and now has a team-leading eight goals. He’s missed the last four matches due to injury and Bobby Wood has replaced him to lead the New England line. Wood has two goals and one assist in his last three matches, ending a scoring drought that lasted over a year. Has Vrioni been missed? And is Wood the right guy to fill in for him?

JC: The Revs are not deep at striker with only Bobby Wood as a true striker option behind Vrioni. Incoming winger Luca Langoni isn’t expected to make it Stateside to bolster the attack until after Leagues Cup as he deals with his visa. Before going down with an injury, Tomas Chancalay got a few starts up top in some of the early games, as there just wasn’t anyone else. Bobby Wood is a great backup striker, he can come in late in games and put in a lot of hard work pressing, and he makes many good runs into the box that open up space for others.

Vrioni in June was playing with a confidence we haven’t seen from him in New England, playing like a DP-level striker. He was creating his own shots from distance, shaking off defenders, and generally playing at a level expected of someone of DP status with a proper supporting cast around him also playing at a high level. We’ll see if the Revs can get back to that in the final 10 games or so of the regular season.

3. Injuries equal opportunities for youngsters

HRB: New England was without six players due to injury in their last match against Nashville. How have injuries affected the team? Will head coach Caleb Porter focus on the League Cup, or prioritize getting players healthy?

JC: The injuries have been an issue all year—once Borrero came back, Chancalay went down for the year, then Borrero missed more time, and even Bobby Wood effectively missed the majority of the early season.

I do not want to count the total number of games this team lost to injury, but it’s been a lot. The good news is that it has opened up minutes for the youngsters, including the new presumptive starting left-back, Peyton Miller, who himself missed a good chunk of time at the start of the season. Jack Panayotou was recalled from his USL Championship loan at Rhode Island FC and has gotten significant playing time, as well.

I think Porter is playing it safe for a late push in the regular season, which is a shame. The Revs have a pretty good Leagues Cup draw, as their group with Mazatlan and Nashville had to be one of the worst in the tournament, with the Revs as the “seeded”/host team.

New England would be at home for the next two matches, since the Revs would host the winner of Pachuca-Tigres, and likely would host a quarterfinal against anyone except Columbus from the lower portion of the East bracket. The Revs have already made two big trades with DeJuan Jones going to Columbus and Henry Kessler going to St. Louis, so there is already some looking ahead to next year and freeing up cap space going on and that’s understandable, if still disappointing.

4. The X-Factor: The younger players

HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?

JC: Youth. I’d love for Noel Buck to be getting more minutes in the midfield but alas he’s been hurt. Ian Harkes doesn’t count as a young player but has done well centrally and has been a decent creator #10 type, while Bajraktarević and Panayotou are putting in good shifts out wide. Peyton Miller at left-back has only played a few games but clearly looks like a future starter in this league and should get a lot of minutes the rest of the way, looking very impactful in the attacking half. The shame is the Revs don’t have a younger backup striker with Justin Rennicks going to Finland and former Revs II attacker Jordan Adebayo-Smith traded to Minnesota last offseason, though Malcolm Fry is trying to do that job with some late cameos. The kids are alright, and if the Revs are going to be bad, might as well give them all the minutes we can.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

JC: I don’t foresee any changes to the Starting XI that featured against Nashville, although it is a pretty quick turnaround, so it’s possible we see a Tommy McNamara or Ema Boateng start. I like the Revs at home, but NYC will definitely have more attacking firepower, so this should be a game where we see New England on the counter. Let’s see if the kids can come away with a 2-1 win.